Arab Voter Turnout Surges in Strongholds Ahead of Election Day Close
Translated & summarized from Makor Rishon by baba
Arab voter turnout has significantly increased in key strongholds of the Ra'am and Joint List parties, with rates in Umm al-Fahm, Nazareth, Rahat, and Kafr Qasim surpassing 2022 final figures. Umm al-Fahm and Nazareth saw the sharpest increases, while Rahat and Kafr Qasim reported higher overall participation. The surge's impact on mandate distribution between the two lists remains to be seen after all votes are counted.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Arab voter turnout in four key cities has already exceeded 2022 final election results.
- Umm al-Fahm and Nazareth, Joint List strongholds, saw turnout increases of 17.8 and 10.1 percentage points respectively.
- Ra'am strongholds Rahat and Kafr Qasim reported high turnout rates of 72.2% and 73.9%.
- The surge in participation could significantly impact mandate allocation among Arab parties.
- Final results will reveal which list benefits most from the increased Arab voter engagement.
Hours before polls close, a significant increase in voter turnout is being observed within the Arab community. Updated figures reveal that in four strongholds of the Ra'am and Joint List parties, turnout rates have already surpassed the final results from the 2022 elections, with some cities seeing a jump of nearly 20 percentage points before the election day has even concluded.
Analysis of data from Votes26 indicates that approximately 105,000 people had voted by early evening in Rahat, Kafr Qasim, Umm al-Fahm, and Nazareth. This compares to about 77,000 valid votes counted in these four cities combined in the previous election. While this represents a difference of around 28,000 votes, the comparison is not exact as the 2026 data includes all voters, whereas 2022 data only includes valid votes.
The sharpest rise in turnout was recorded in Umm al-Fahm, a key stronghold of the Joint List, where 56.1% of eligible voters had cast ballots by early evening, a significant increase from 38.3% in the entirety of the 2022 election. In absolute numbers, about 23,700 residents voted, compared to 14,451 valid votes in the previous election. Nazareth, another Joint List stronghold, also saw a substantial increase, with 58.4% turnout compared to 48.3% in 2022, translating to about 35,400 voters versus 28,462 in the prior election.
Ra'am strongholds are also experiencing exceptionally high participation. In Rahat, the largest Bedouin city, turnout reached 72.2%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points from 60.6% in the last election, with approximately 32,300 voters casting ballots. In Kafr Qasim, a prominent Ra'am stronghold, turnout was 73.9%, up from 66.9% in 2022, with about 13,500 residents voting compared to 10,895 in the previous election.
Comparisons between the four cities suggest a nuanced trend: strongholds of the Joint List saw a sharper increase in turnout relative to previous elections, while Ra'am strongholds exhibit higher overall participation rates. The average increase in Umm al-Fahm and Nazareth was about 14 percentage points, compared to approximately 9.3 percentage points in Rahat and Kafr Qasim. However, this is a simple average and not a representative sample of all party voters.
The overall picture could be particularly significant given the recent unification of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, and the ongoing competition for mandates among Arab parties. Nevertheless, a high turnout in a city associated with a specific party does not guarantee that all additional votes will go to that party. The final results will determine if this surge in Arab voter engagement translates into more Knesset seats and which of the two main lists will benefit most.
