Arab Israeli Voters Show Increased Turnout Potential in Upcoming Elections

Early indicators suggest a significant rise in voter turnout among Arab Israelis in the upcoming 26th Knesset elections, a trend that could alter the distribution of mandates. Polling data and on-the-ground observations indicate a growing willingness to vote, with Stat-Net CEO Yosef Makladeh estimating turnout could reach 68%-69%. This contrasts sharply with the approximately 45% turnout in 2021 and 53% in 2022. In March 2020, turnout was around 65%, a recent high.

Several factors are contributing to this potential surge. Public campaigns are actively encouraging early voting, particularly in mixed cities where concerns about violence or extremist elements exist. A notable development is the placement of four Arab women in realistic positions on electoral lists, including sociologist Dr. Maha Karkabi Sabbah, education lecturer Dr. Nihaya Washaahi, therapist Sumia Bashir, and MK Iman Khatib-Yassin. These candidates are seen as bringing valuable experience and perspectives.

Feminist writer and commentator Samaah Salaymeh notes a palpable increase in the desire to vote across various circles, emphasizing that voting is the sole remaining avenue for equality for Arab citizens. She attributes this shift to a sense of crisis stemming from years of perceived governmental neglect, rising crime rates within the Arab community, and a general atmosphere of incitement. Many, including former boycott supporters, feel compelled to act, viewing the current government as detrimental to the Arab community.

Salaymeh also addresses the potential impact of higher Arab voter turnout on coalition formation. While acknowledging the general opposition to integrating Arab representatives into coalitions, she points out that the "change bloc" may need Arab votes, either through direct participation as proposed by Mansour Abbas or external support as offered by the Joint List. This suggests a growing recognition of the Arab vote's significance.

Concerns about potential disruptions on election day persist, with fears of provocations from far-right activists, echoing past incidents like the "Arabs are flocking to the polls" rhetoric in 2015 and attempts to install cameras in 2019. Salaymeh advises caution, recommending women vote in groups with children and young people to avoid confrontation. She also notes a decline in the influence of groups advocating for election boycotts, estimating their impact at less than 4%, while observing a renewed engagement from individuals who previously abstained.

Historically, women have voted at lower rates than men, but Salaymeh anticipates a change, with women's turnout expected to be a surprise, particularly among young women. The increased visibility of women facing racism is seen as a galvanizing factor. The potential election of four Arab women to the Knesset is viewed positively, though Salaymeh stresses their individual diversity and unique contributions beyond religious or secular labels. Attention is also advised for mixed cities and the Negev region, with predictions that Ra'am may outperform the Joint List in the south.