Netanyahu Faces International Pressure, May Seek Role as Minister

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly deeply concerned about two major issues that could significantly impact his political future and Israel's international standing. These concerns stem from potential future U.S. policy shifts and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. Netanyahu has privately expressed fears that Israel could face "crippling sanctions" and become an "autarkic economy," akin to North Korea, particularly if a hostile U.S. president takes office. This fear is compounded by his apprehension regarding the ICC arrest warrant, which he believes could lead to future travel restrictions or even extradition, forcing him into a new, unpredictable legal battle.

Sources close to Netanyahu suggest his anxieties are more profound than publicly expressed, potentially altering his long-held political stances. The article posits that these international pressures might force Netanyahu to compromise on his insistence on remaining Prime Minister and maintaining the right-wing bloc. His past practice of including centrist figures like Ehud Barak, Tzipi Livni, and Yair Lapid in his governments, serving as both a buffer and a point of contact for international diplomacy, is highlighted as a potential model.

However, the current political landscape presents a challenge in finding such partners. The article suggests a scenario where Netanyahu might not lead a rotation government but instead serve as a minister in a government led by Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett. This would necessitate legislative changes to bypass the "Dreyfus-Pinchasi precedent," but a broad Knesset majority could facilitate this. This potential role as a minister, particularly as Defense Minister, could allow him to leverage a two-year window of potential U.S. support under Donald Trump to counter Iran's nuclear program.

Netanyahu's legal concerns are intrinsically linked to Israel's international standing. A weaker Israel, he fears, increases his chances of falling into the ICC's grasp. He reportedly drew a parallel to Sudan's former President Omar al-Bashir, who allegedly faced less ICC pursuit after leaving office, suggesting that maintaining an official role, albeit a less prominent one, could offer some protection. The article argues that continuing to serve alongside figures like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir only fuels the prosecutor's desire to see Netanyahu on trial.

The analysis concludes that while many focus on Netanyahu's potential departure from politics or continued premiership, another scenario exists: Netanyahu serving as a minister. This path, though requiring legal adjustments, is presented as a realistic, albeit unprecedented, option driven by the "sword" of the ICC hanging over his head.