Small Parties Could Decide Israeli Election Outcome

Hundreds of thousands of votes cast for parties failing to pass Israel's electoral threshold could significantly impact the upcoming Knesset elections, potentially deciding which bloc can form a government. The 3.25% threshold means votes for parties below this mark do not translate into parliamentary seats and are not included in the distribution of the 120 Knesset seats.

Two parties highlighted as potentially influential despite their struggle to cross the threshold are Am Yisrael, led by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, and HaMeyalaim-HaKalkalit, headed by former minister Yoaz Hendel and former accountant general Yaron Zelekha. Winter's party, which advocates for a hardline security stance and a change in leadership, has shown fluctuating poll numbers, often remaining below the threshold. Winter has declared support for Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister but rejected merger offers.

Hendel and Zelekha's party, focusing on economic and security reform, has also faced challenges in consistently polling above the threshold. While some polls show them below, one poll indicated they could secure four seats. Other small parties, including religious and nationalist factions, could also collectively garner a substantial number of votes that do not result in Knesset representation.

Experts estimate that 5% to 6% of the votes could go to parties that do not pass the threshold. While these votes do not directly transfer to larger parties, they alter the relative weight of parties that do pass the threshold, influencing the final seat distribution through surplus agreements. The outcome for Winter's party is seen as particularly significant for the right-wing bloc due to his endorsement of Netanyahu, while the opposition bloc is monitoring Hendel and Zelekha's party. The final impact remains uncertain and depends on the overall vote distribution, with every Knesset seat potentially crucial in forming the next government.