Israeli Election Exit Polls Have Historically Been Unreliable
Translated & summarized from Hamal by baba
Israeli exit polls released tomorrow night have historically shown significant deviations from final election results, sometimes changing the political outcome. Notable examples include the 1996 election where Benjamin Netanyahu won despite polls favoring Shimon Peres, and the 2015 election where the Likud secured a clear victory over the Zionist Union, contrary to tight projections. In 2019, Benny Gantz's party celebrated a projected win that didn't materialize, and in 2022, Meretz was predicted to pass the threshold but ultimately failed. Pollsters are wary of current projections due to close races and voter behavior, emphasizing that final results depend on actual votes.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli exit polls have historically shown significant discrepancies with final election results.
- In 1996, exit polls favored Shimon Peres, but Benjamin Netanyahu won the direct prime ministerial election.
- The 2015 election saw the Likud win decisively after polls predicted a very close race.
- In April 2019, Benny Gantz's party celebrated a projected win that did not materialize in final results.
- All 2022 exit polls predicted Meretz would pass the electoral threshold, but it ultimately failed.
- Pollsters express concern over current projections due to close races and unpredictable voter behavior.
As Israeli television exit polls are set to be released tomorrow at 10 PM, party headquarters will be preparing for celebrations or concession speeches. However, Israeli political history shows that early celebrations or admissions of defeat based on these polls can be premature, as significant discrepancies between initial projections and final results have occurred in past elections, sometimes altering the political landscape.
In the 1996 direct election for prime minister, exit polls indicated a close race, with some even showing a slight lead for Shimon Peres. The final count, however, revealed Benjamin Netanyahu as the winner with 50.5% of the vote compared to Peres's 49.5%, a result that became one of the most famous election night stories.
The 2015 elections were dubbed the "Yom Kippur of the pollsters." Exit polls predicted a tight contest between the Likud and the Zionist Union, with Likud projected to receive 27-28 seats and the Zionist Union 26-27. The final results showed Likud surging to 30 seats and the Zionist Union securing only 24, turning a near tie into a clear victory for Netanyahu.
During the April 2019 elections, a Channel 12 poll projected 37 seats for Benny Gantz's Blue and White party versus 33 for the Likud. Gantz's camp celebrated a victory, but the final results showed both parties receiving 35 seats, erasing the projected lead and indicating a right-wing bloc advantage. In the same election, the New Right party, led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, was projected to receive four seats by one poll, while two others placed it below the electoral threshold. Ultimately, the party garnered 3.2% of the vote and failed to pass the threshold.
A dramatic discrepancy occurred in the 2022 elections, where all four exit polls predicted Meretz would win four to five seats. However, the final vote count revealed the party had fallen short of the electoral threshold by approximately 4,000 votes. This outcome contributed to Netanyahu's bloc finishing the election with 64 seats.
Pollsters are currently expressing concern that this year's polls might also be unpredictable due to a close race, respondents not answering truthfully, difficulties in predicting voting patterns of populations like the Haredi community, and especially reliance on voter turnout. History suggests caution with early exit poll data. Even minor deviations of one or two seats, or misjudging a party's ability to pass the electoral threshold, can significantly alter the seat distribution and the possibility of forming a government. The final word, it is reminded, belongs to the votes cast at the ballot boxes.
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