National Religious Voters Shift Allegiance Within Right-Wing Bloc
Translated & summarized from Calcalist by baba
National religious voters are shifting their allegiance within the right-wing bloc, with a notable decrease in support for the Likud party and an increase for Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir's parties. Despite anger over military reserve duty, loyalty to the bloc remains strong due to factors like war objectives and judicial reform. This influential community, representing 8.5% of voters, is expected to secure 12-14 Knesset seats, with most votes concentrated within right-wing factions.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- National religious voters are shifting from Likud to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's parties.
- Anger over military reserve duty is a key issue for national religious voters.
- Loyalty to the right-wing bloc is maintained due to war aims and judicial reform.
- The national religious community could influence 12-14 Knesset seats.
- Community ties and the perception of defection reinforce bloc loyalty.
A significant shift in voting patterns is expected among national religious voters, though most will likely remain within the right-wing bloc, according to analyses by pollster Menachem Lazar and Dr. Ariel Finkelshtein of the Israel Democracy Institute. Lazar notes a decline in support for the Likud party among this demographic, from an estimated third to around 20% or less, attributing this to the Likud's decision to exclude religious figures from its list. This segment of voters is increasingly leaning towards parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, with a smaller portion considering Avi Winter's party.
Analysis of the 2022 elections showed 80.5% of national religious voters supported parties aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc. Current projections suggest this figure may decrease, with Finkelshtein estimating that the percentage voting outside the coalition parties might not exceed 30%. Despite anger over the unequal burden of military reserve duty, which this community feels acutely, a significant portion remains loyal to the right-wing bloc due to factors like the desire for decisive action in the war and support for judicial reform.
The national religious community, comprising about 620,000 voters or 8.5% of the electorate, wields considerable influence due to a high turnout rate, potentially translating to 12-14 Knesset seats. He also points out that community ties and the perception of switching blocs as "defection," especially after October 7th, further solidify loyalty.
Professor Asher Cohen of Bar-Ilan University suggests the competition for these voters is primarily between Smotrich and Likud, with Winter appealing to a minority seeking change. Polls also indicate that a majority of national religious voters believe Israel's situation has improved over the past four years, contributing to their high commitment to vote. While Avi Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" party could offer an alternative for those seeking change without leaving the bloc, current polls suggest it may not pass the electoral threshold, potentially deterring voters.
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