Serbian Populist Leader Vučić Admits Defeat Amid Student-Led Protests

Populist leader Aleksandar Vučić, who has dominated Serbia for the past 12 years, conceded defeat in parliamentary elections on Sunday. Pre-election polls indicated a close race between his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and a new, leaderless party formed by student protesters. The protests, which have shaken Serbia for two years, called for an end to corruption allegedly rampant under the SNS's long rule since 2012, and under Vučić's leadership since 2014.

Although official results are pending, Vučić announced to supporters that his party had lost its majority, estimating that the "Students' List" party would win at least 135 seats, exceeding the 126 needed for a majority in the 250-seat parliament. A forecast by Ipsos/CeSID projected a sweeping victory for the "Students' List" with 52% of the vote, securing at least 126 seats, while Vučić's SNS would get 104.

Vučić, 56, previously served as prime minister and has been president since 2017. He resigned last month to run for prime minister again, as he was ineligible for a third presidential term. Despite officially stepping down as president, he maintained a dominant role, often chairing government meetings and announcing key decisions.

The election occurred against a backdrop of widespread protests, ignited by a November 2024 tragedy in Novi Sad where 16 people died in a concrete roof collapse at a train station. Many linked the disaster to corruption in government infrastructure projects. Critics accused Vučić of suppressing freedoms, controlling media, and allowing organized crime and corruption to flourish.

The "Students' List" party, formed by young protesters, features candidates like doctors, professors, and farmers, with cardiologist Ilija Srdašnović at its head, though his leadership role is not definitive. The party pledges to fight corruption, free the judiciary and public institutions from political influence, and remove officials blamed for violently suppressing protests.

High voter turnout, reaching a record 64.9% by 6 p.m. local time, was seen as favorable to the opposition. Vučić himself reportedly waited two hours to vote. The "Students' List" gained traction due to anger over government corruption, highlighted by the Novi Sad disaster, and a successful grassroots campaign reaching rural areas.

Vučić, who denies allegations of corruption and repression, accused protesters of being funded by "foreign actors." He has enjoyed popularity for economic growth and modernization, promising increased pensions, public sector wages, and healthcare investment. His foreign policy maintains close ties with China and Russia while pursuing EU membership, though relations with Brussels have been strained.

The shift in Serbian politics could concern Jerusalem, as Vučić was a strong supporter of Israel, including a joint drone production initiative. The "Students' List" has not clarified its foreign policy stance or its position on Israel. Srdašnović offered an evasive response when asked about relations with China and Russia, stating that Serbian foreign policy would prioritize national interests and focus on domestic issues like rule of law and strengthening democracy.

The election was held amid high tension, with warnings of potential instability and unrest if results are contested. Vučić pledged to accept the results, stating "Vox populi, vox dei" (the voice of the people is the voice of God), but also vowed to suppress any riots claiming fraud if his party won. Independent observers and critics reported irregularities, including voters being photographed with their ballots, suggesting pressure or vote-buying.