Lebanese Government Divided Over Hezbollah Arms Cache Amid US Pressure

Lebanon's cabinet is experiencing internal divisions over a shipment of explosives seized at a checkpoint in the Dahr al-Baydar area. The decision on whether to refer the case to the Judicial Council has been postponed pending further investigation. This comes as Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for the explosives, which it stated were intended for use against Israel in southern Lebanon. The situation is further complicated by escalating U.S. pressure on Beirut to disarm Hezbollah, coinciding with stalled negotiations between Lebanon and Israel and increasing warnings of a new confrontation.

The Lebanese cabinet postponed a decision on referring the explosives case to the Judicial Council on Thursday, a move that averted immediate political confrontation but did not resolve internal disagreements. Ministers from the Lebanese Forces party walked out of the session in protest of the decision not to refer the case. Minister of Justice Adel Nassar intends to bring the issue before the cabinet again at its next session, where a vote may be required if consensus cannot be reached, particularly given expected opposition from ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, however, prefers to wait for investigations to conclude before deciding on the appropriate judicial path. The "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc, affiliated with Hezbollah, welcomed the postponement, stating it allows for further handling of the issue and warning that turning it into an internal political dispute could harm Lebanese stability.

The case holds particular significance as the Judicial Council is considered an exceptional judicial body competent in cases referred by the cabinet that are deemed related to state security or public stability. Supporters of referral argue that the nature of the shipment and its circumstances warrant a broad judicial investigation, especially given concerns about potential links to security plots beyond illegal arms or explosives transport. Keeping the case within the purview of ordinary courts or the military court would mean it remains under the existing judicial framework.

The dispute reflects a wider division over Hezbollah's weapons and the state's role in controlling military and security activities within Lebanon, amidst growing domestic and international calls to centralize arms with official institutions. The U.S. State Department reiterated on Friday that there is no U.S.-Turkish proposal to change Lebanon's political system based on the Taif Agreement, emphasizing continued cooperation with Beirut and Tel Aviv within the security track mechanism. State Department spokesperson Tommy Vietor outlined three U.S. objectives: disarming Hezbollah, ensuring long-term security for Lebanon and Israel, and working towards peaceful relations between the two countries based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

These demands place the Lebanese government in a difficult position, needing to manage external pressures without exacerbating internal divisions, particularly concerning Hezbollah's arms and its future political and military role. The internal crisis coincides with stalled Lebanese-Israeli military negotiations held on October 20-21 in Tampa, Florida, which reportedly made no tangible progress. The discussions covered arrangements for expanding the areas covered by understandings, verification mechanisms, and potential future oversight of security arrangements. Concurrently, the Israeli website Walla quoted a security source stating the Israeli army is preparing for a potential new round of confrontation with Hezbollah, with warnings to Beirut about the repercussions of the party's involvement in any potential Israeli-Iranian confrontation. Amidst the dispute over the explosives, U.S. pressure, and stalled negotiations, Lebanon faces conflicting paths: attempting to solidify security understandings to limit war possibilities, and escalating political and military pressures that could reignite confrontation with Hezbollah. The judicial case's trajectory remains an indicator of the Lebanese government's ability to manage this balance without deepening internal divisions.