US-Israel Divide Emerges Over Syria's Future Amid Sweda Tensions

The southern Syrian province of Sweida has become a focal point of regional tension, with ongoing Israeli military activity and speculation about the National Guard factions' potential moves in the province's western countryside, amid accusations of Tel Aviv's support. U.S. Envoy to Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack's statements denying American support for Druze spiritual leader Hekmat al-Hajri have highlighted a potential divergence between Washington and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government regarding the management of Syrian affairs and the role of local armed groups.

Traffic on the Sweida-Damascus road was halted on Saturday after the National Guard's Um al-Zaytun checkpoint blocked civilians, travelers, and students. The Sweida Information Directorate accused the groups controlling the checkpoint of completely disrupting citizen movement. This is not the first time these groups have closed the crossing, having done so previously during exam periods, hindering student travel. These actions coincide with reports of infiltration attempts and attacks by National Guard elements in western Sweida, though without decisive gains. On October 8, factions affiliated with the formation briefly seized the village of Waraq after an offensive from the town of Arekeh before withdrawing hours later. These developments occur amidst Syrian government troop reinforcements around Sweida and unconfirmed reports of Israeli efforts to bolster local armed groups, though the nature and extent of alleged support remain unclear.

Barrack denied U.S. backing for al-Hajri, warning against exploiting the belief in Israeli support and U.S. alignment to justify actions against other Druze. He affirmed that a de-escalation understanding between Syria and Israel remains possible. These remarks are significant as Washington seeks to encourage Damascus and Tel Aviv toward a security understanding to reduce confrontation risks, while Israel maintains its military actions and security demands along the Golan border. Analysts suggest the U.S. position reflects reservations about empowering armed groups outside Syrian government control, particularly if it jeopardizes a security agreement between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Conversely, Israel's approach is seen as aimed at establishing faits accomplis in southern Syria to enhance its influence and maintain freedom of military action, regardless of an agreement with Damascus.

Developments in Sweida are also linked to Israeli domestic politics ahead of the October 27 elections. Analysts believe Netanyahu may use the rhetoric of protecting Syrian Druze to bolster his image as a guarantor of Israeli and allied security, potentially attracting Druze votes within Israel. However, electoral calculations alone do not explain Israel's actions, which are also tied to its northern border security arrangements and a desire to prevent a new Syrian reality that could limit its intervention capabilities or alter regional power balances. Israel reportedly seeks to maintain observation posts near the Golan to monitor Syrian developments and prepare for threats. It also fears that Syrian stability and its regional resurgence could alter the surrounding strategic environment. Empowering local armed groups might serve as Israeli leverage in future negotiations, but this does not imply a long-term commitment or a willingness to risk a broad confrontation for them.

Analysts doubt the National Guard's ability to significantly alter the balance of power in southern Syria alone, even with potential Israeli air or logistical support, due to the group's diverse factions and objectives. The possession of weapons or external backing does not guarantee territorial control against government forces. Experts caution against overestimating the Israel-group relationship, suggesting support may be situational rather than a strategic alliance, drawing parallels to the South Lebanon Army's reliance on Israeli backing before its collapse. While coordination channels may exist, Israel's willingness to expand this role or risk direct confrontation with Syrian government forces for these groups' objectives is questionable.

Barrack linked the Sweida-Daraa region to Captagon trade, suggesting its revenues fund some Druze armament, but described reports of Israeli arming of Druze groups as unconfirmed, noting potential cross-border arms transfers. This situation involves security considerations, local power interests, and broader regional dynamics, including the Syrian government's future, Israel's stance on its stability, and U.S. efforts to prevent chaos and the resurgence of ISIS or Iran-linked groups. Washington aims for a security understanding between Damascus and Tel Aviv to de-escalate, while Israel seeks to preserve its freedom of movement and influence near the Golan. This divergence creates a complex equation for southern Syria, where reaching an understanding requires clear arrangements on military deployment and security control, while Israeli incursions and local actions could undermine trust and complicate negotiations. Sweida remains a testing ground for the U.S.-Israel relationship in Syria, with potential outcomes ranging from a U.S.-brokered security understanding to a scenario where field realities dictate events, leading to renewed tensions.