Russian-Speaking Immigrants Hold Key to Israeli Election Outcomes

Immigrants from the former Soviet Union constitute 16% of Israeli voters, yet their representation in the Knesset has historically been disproportionately low. In the previous Knesset, only 8 out of 120 MKs were immigrants, with three from Yisrael Beiteinu (NDI). Current projections suggest only three to five immigrant MKs following the recent elections, with Alex Rif from Yashar being the only one from a party other than NDI. This underrepresentation, about 3% of seats, is significantly less than their demographic share.

Public activist Alex Tenzer describes immigrant MKs as "dinosaurs" on the verge of extinction, noting their volatile voting patterns due to a lack of traditional political loyalties. He finds it peculiar that parties across the political spectrum have neglected representatives who can connect with this electorate. Voter turnout among immigrants is difficult to precisely measure. An AI analysis of polling stations in cities with high immigrant populations, where NDI previously secured at least 15% of votes, indicated a lower-than-average turnout of 57%. These areas, often with lower socioeconomic indicators, saw turnout 3 percentage points below the city average in "immigrant-centric" polling stations. The accuracy of voter lists is further complicated by individuals who have left Israel but remain registered.

Immigrants in Israel are generally secular (around 70%), supportive of religious freedom and the conscription of Haredim, but lean right on foreign policy and security. Research by Inna Orli Sapozhnikov from the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute shows 39% of immigrants identify as right-wing, compared to 22% of secular Israelis. Despite this, in the 2022 elections, only 41% of immigrants voted for Netanyahu's bloc, while 56% supported the change bloc. An earlier April-May survey indicated only 24% intended to vote for Netanyahu's bloc, with 46% planning to support the change bloc, including 19% for NDI. A significant 24% remained undecided.

The immigrant population is diverse, including 740,000 long-term residents (pre-2013), 150,000 second-generation individuals, and 255,000 new immigrants (post-2014). Of particular interest are the 130,000 who arrived since 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war, potentially controlling up to three seats with their secular and liberal leanings. While 19% of long-term immigrants were undecided in Sapozhnikov's study, this figure rises to 39% among newer immigrants. Sapozhnikov notes high voter motivation among these new arrivals, though stated intentions often exceed actual turnout. She projects 700,000-720,000 immigrants will vote, representing a 61-63% turnout and securing 17-18 Knesset seats.

Sapozhnikov's research suggests a shift away from the right bloc among immigrants. Only 62% of past Likud voters intend to support Netanyahu's bloc, and 63% of those who voted for the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit joint list remain. A key distinction for this group is a strong, consistent base of support for NDI, which actively addresses issues like social housing and low pensions. Tenzer suggests that parties like Aizenkot's and Bennett's could have gained more seats with better campaigns targeting immigrants, but Liberman and Likud have been more active. Similar to Shas's claims about undercounted support, it's possible pollsters struggle to reach recent immigrants. The change bloc's hopes for these voters appear justified, as only 22% identify as right-wing, compared to 43% of long-term immigrants. A majority of new immigrants prioritize the religious-secular divide over the left-right one, and fewer believe Israel needs a strong leader.