Immigrant Voters Could Sway Israeli Election Results

Immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who constitute 16% of the Israeli electorate, are a potentially decisive bloc in the upcoming elections, despite their declining representation in the Knesset. While there were 8 immigrant lawmakers in the previous Knesset, only 3 to 5 are expected this time, with most affiliated with the Yisrael Beiteinu party. Social activist Alex Tencer notes the diminishing presence of immigrant MKs, comparing them to "dinosaurs." He highlights that these voters are often swing voters, unburdened by traditional party loyalties, making the perceived lack of attention from both sides of the political spectrum puzzling.

Calculating the precise voting patterns of immigrants is complex. An AI analysis of polling stations in cities with high immigrant populations, where Yisrael Beiteinu received at least 15% of the vote, indicated a relatively low turnout of 57%. However, this turnout was still three percentage points lower than the average for these cities. The issue is further complicated by immigrants who have left Israel but remain on voter rolls.

This demographic is largely secular (around 70%), supports religious freedom and the drafting of the ultra-Orthodox, but tends to be politically right-wing. A study by Ina Orli Spozhnikov from the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion Research at the Israel Democracy Institute found that 39% of immigrants identify as right-wing, compared to 22% of secular Israelis. Despite this, in the 2022 elections, only 41% voted for the Netanyahu bloc, while 56% supported the change bloc.

Among the immigrant population, there are approximately 740,000 long-term immigrants (pre-2013), 150,000 second-generation individuals, and 255,000 new immigrants since 2014. A particularly interesting group consists of 130,000 immigrants who arrived since 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war. These recent arrivals are more secular and liberal, with 39% undecided about their voting intentions, compared to 19% among older immigrants. Spozhnikov notes high motivation and awareness among these new immigrants, though actual voting turnout might be lower than stated intentions.

Spozhnikov's research suggests that around 700,000 to 720,000 immigrants will vote, representing a 61%-63% turnout and potentially 17-18 Knesset seats. The study indicates a trend away from the right-wing bloc, with only 62% of previous Likud voters intending to vote for Netanyahu's bloc and a similar decline for the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit list. Yisrael Beiteinu maintains a strong base among immigrants. Tencer points to issues like public housing and small pensions affecting immigrants, areas he believes only Yisrael Beiteinu is actively addressing, alongside Likud and Liberman's campaigns.

Polls may be underestimating the support for new immigrants, similar to how some parties claim polls underestimate their strength. The study also suggests that recent immigrants are less likely to identify as right-wing (22% vs. 43% of older immigrants) and are more concerned with secular-religious tensions than with left-right divides. A significant portion also do not believe Israel needs a strong leader, contrasting with older immigrants and the general Jewish population.