Brazil Votes in Presidential Runoff With Israel Watching Closely

Brazil is holding a decisive presidential runoff election today, Sunday, which could significantly alter the country's political future and its relations with the United States and Israel. The race is between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Polls indicate an extremely close contest.

In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro surprised pollsters by securing approximately 47% of the vote, compared to Lula's 45%. Since then, the incumbent president has narrowed the gap. Recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest show Bolsonaro with 51% of valid votes versus 49% for Lula, within the statistical margin of error.

The election's outcome carries significant diplomatic implications for Israel. Lula, a leftist leader, has had a contentious relationship with Israel, particularly regarding the Gaza war. In 2024, he caused a storm by comparing Israel's actions in Gaza to the persecution of Jews during the Holocaust, leading to him being declared persona non grata in Israel. He has continued to accuse Israel of genocide.

Conversely, Flávio Bolsonaro has maintained a pro-Israel stance throughout his campaign. During a visit to Jerusalem in January, he pledged to move Brazil's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem if elected. He reiterated this promise in June, stating his intention to appoint a new ambassador to Israel and change bilateral relations by 2027.

These diplomatic stances are not merely rhetorical. Following Bolsonaro's first-round success, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with him, congratulated him, and invited him to visit Israel, with both expressing a desire to renew the "deep friendship" between the nations. Bolsonaro also maintains ties with U.S. President Donald Trump, while Lula opposes what he calls American interference in Brazil's internal affairs.

Beyond foreign policy, key domestic issues include the cost of living, crime, household debt, and the economy. Lula highlights his administration's achievements in reducing unemployment and poverty and proposes economic aid programs. Bolsonaro promises a tougher stance on crime, reduced government spending, and strengthened business activity. He has also pledged to work for the release of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted in 2025 for involvement in an attempted coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison.

Over 158 million eligible voters can participate in the election, with polls open from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM Brasília time. Vote counting is expected to begin after polls close, with initial results potentially available tonight. Lula seeks a fourth term, having narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. His opponent is now the former president's son, aiming to bring the family back to power. Since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round has won the runoff. Today's vote will determine if Lula breaks this precedent or if Bolsonaro the younger becomes Brazil's next president.