Brazil Presidential Election Hinges on Ties with Israel in Tight Race
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, October 25, pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in a tight race. Relations with Israel are a central issue, with Bolsonaro promising to move Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem, while Lula's government previously clashed with Israel over the Gaza war. Polls show a very close contest, with Bolsonaro holding a slight edge in some surveys. The election will decide Brazil's foreign policy direction and its relationship with key global partners.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Brazil's presidential election on Oct. 25 features a close runoff between Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro.
- Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to move Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem if elected.
- Relations with Israel deteriorated under Lula due to his comments on the Gaza war.
- Recent polls show a very tight race, with Bolsonaro holding a slight lead in some.
- Key campaign issues include crime, cost of living, and foreign policy alignment.
Brazil is set for a decisive presidential election on Sunday, October 25, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Following a close first round on October 4, where Flavio secured 47.03% of the vote to Lula's 45.16%, the candidates are preparing for an intensely competitive runoff. For Brazil's right-wing supporters, this election represents an opportunity to return the Bolsonaro camp to power and shift the nation's foreign policy direction.
A key issue for Israel is the potential for restoring relations with Brazil, which deteriorated during Lula's term due to sharp disagreements over the war in Gaza. Recent polls indicate a tight race, with some showing a slight lead for Flavio Bolsonaro. For instance, a PoderData poll released on October 22 gave Bolsonaro 51% of valid votes compared to Lula's 49%. Another poll by BTG/Nexus on October 19 showed Bolsonaro with 50.3% against Lula's 49.7%.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to deepen ties with Israel and the United States if elected, including moving Brazil's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and appointing a new ambassador. He has criticized Lula's foreign policy for prioritizing ideology over national interests and plans to foster closer ties with Argentina and the US, while combating antisemitism and terrorism.
In contrast, Lula aims to continue a policy emphasizing cooperation with Global South nations and Brazil's political independence. His government clashed with Israel after Lula compared Israel's actions in Gaza to the Holocaust, drawing a strong rebuke from Israel and leading to a diplomatic downturn. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Bolsonaro on his first-round success and expressed hope for his victory, emphasizing a desire to renew bilateral friendship.
Beyond foreign relations, the campaign has focused on crime, cost of living, and trust in politics. Bolsonaro advocates for a conservative security approach, including a tougher stance on crime, while Lula highlights social welfare programs and poverty reduction. The election outcome will determine whether Brazil continues under Lula's leadership or elects a new president from the Bolsonaro camp, potentially realigning its foreign policy closer to the US and Israel.