Analysts: Netanyahu May Seek War Post-Election to Force Unity Government

Israeli analysts believe that if the upcoming elections do not yield a decisive result, leaving Benjamin Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister, he might initiate a new regional war. While the Israeli military has reportedly done its utmost to prevent a pre-election conflict, there are doubts about its ability to avert a new war during the government formation negotiations.

Political analyst Nahum Barnea noted that the opposition bloc, termed the "change bloc," includes former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, former Defense Ministers Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, and former Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan. In contrast, Barnea argued that within the Likud party's top three positions, only Netanyahu possesses perceived security decision-making qualifications. He questioned whether Defense Minister Israel Katz has made any significant security decisions, aside from revoking administrative detentions for "terrorist settlers," a move he deemed strategically damaging.

Barnea further stated that Netanyahu's allies, including the ultra-Orthodox parties and figures like Ben Gvir and Smotrich, lack security expertise. He attributed this to alleged involvement in criminal matters and evasion of military service, respectively. Barnea emphasized that security is paramount for any Israeli government, especially the next one, highlighting a significant gap between Netanyahu's potential security cabinet and that of the "change bloc."

He suggested that the issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription is Netanyahu's weak point. However, the opposition leaders have failed to present a unified front or a clear alternative, leaving the security agenda to Netanyahu, whom Barnea holds responsible for the "greatest failure in the state's history." Barnea warned that if Netanyahu's bloc achieves a significant victory, the opposition's importance will diminish. If the results are close to polls, indicating a larger opposition bloc without a clear majority, a complex process will ensue.

Barnea posited that the outgoing government might delay the transfer of power by initiating a regional war, potentially with or without U.S. cooperation. Such a conflict, he speculated, could lead to rockets targeting Tel Aviv, creating immense pressure on Eisenkot and Bennett to join a unity government. He claimed Netanyahu attempted this in the final weeks before the election but was deterred by Iranian restraint, IDF opposition, and a U.S. veto. Barnea proposed that the opposition leaders must act swiftly and unitedly to form a government immediately after the election results are clear, before official ratification, to prevent such a scenario and ensure any potential conflict is led by a legitimate, elected government.

Military analyst Amos Harel of Haaretz viewed the recent shooting incident in Hebron as a significant opportunity for Netanyahu. Harel suggested that if Netanyahu failed to ignite a conflict with Iran before the election, he would focus on available options, such as escalating tensions in the West Bank to create a public sense of emergency. Harel also noted that Israeli political sources quickly attributed the shooting to Hamas operatives, raising suspicions of a pre-planned narrative for the election campaign.

Harel observed that Netanyahu's rivals have largely avoided addressing his attempts to reignite the Iranian front, possibly to avoid appearing defeatist. He acknowledged the IDF's efforts to prevent pre-election attacks but expressed doubt about its ability to maintain a similar stance during post-election government formation talks. Harel concluded that even a clear opposition victory next Wednesday would not end the political struggle, as Netanyahu shows no intention of leaving the political stage easily.