Final Election Poll Shows Eisenkot Leading, Netanyahu Gaining
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
A final pre-election poll by Channel 12 News shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party leading with 23 seats, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud gains to 21 seats. The bloc opposing Netanyahu holds a 70-50 seat advantage, but forming a government may prove challenging. Netanyahu is closing the gap in personal suitability polls for prime minister, and voters show a preference for a "change government."
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Final poll shows Yishar party leading with 23 seats, Likud at 21, four days before election.
- Anti-Netanyahu bloc holds 70 seats, Netanyahu bloc has 50 seats, but majority is complex.
- Netanyahu narrows personal suitability gap for prime minister against Eisenkot and ties Bennett.
- Voters prefer a "change government" over Netanyahu's bloc, 46% to 32%.
- Many "change bloc" voters would support a minority government relying on Ra'am's abstention.
With just four days remaining until the general election, the latest poll from Channel 12 News indicates that Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party is projected to be the largest in the Knesset with 23 seats. The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is shown to be gaining ground, narrowing the gap to 21 seats. The bloc of parties opposing Netanyahu is projected to hold a significant majority, securing 70 seats compared to 50 for Netanyahu's bloc.
However, the poll also reveals a tightening race in the personal contest for prime minister. While Eisenkot still leads Netanyahu in suitability for the role, the gap has narrowed to six percentage points, with 44% favoring Eisenkot and 38% Netanyahu. In a head-to-head comparison with Naftali Bennett, Netanyahu is now tied at 39%, a significant improvement from previous polls where Bennett held an advantage. Netanyahu also maintains a clear lead over Avigdor Lieberman, with 40% preferring Netanyahu and 28% Lieberman.
The survey highlights a public preference for a "change government" led by the bloc opposing Netanyahu, with 46% favoring such an outcome versus 32% for Netanyahu's bloc. A significant portion of voters, 60% of those supporting the "change bloc," indicated a willingness to form a minority government relying on the abstention of the Ra'am party, should they fall short of a 61-seat majority without Arab parties.
Several smaller parties, including Ofer Vinter's Am Israel and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economic list, are projected to fall short of the electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset. Similarly, Moti Leitner's Haredi Public party and Avi Maoz's Noam Israel are also expected to miss the threshold.
The poll suggests that while the anti-Netanyahu bloc holds a numerical advantage, the 61-seat majority needed to form a government may be complicated by the reliance on Arab parties. The potential for a minority government or other political arrangements is likely to be a key issue in coalition negotiations following the election.
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