Final Election Polls Show No Bloc Reaching Majority, Potential for Repeat Elections
Translated & summarized from Ynet by baba
Final pre-election polls released Friday show no bloc reaching the 61 mandates needed for a majority government, with the "change bloc" leading the "Netanyahu bloc." The Yesh! party is projected as the largest, while Amcha Yisrael is expected to fall below the electoral threshold. The results suggest a possibility of repeat elections, though final turnout and last-minute shifts could alter the outcome.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Final election polls indicate no bloc will achieve the 61 mandates required to form a government.
- The "change bloc" is projected to lead the "Netanyahu bloc" by 2 to 6 mandates in the latest surveys.
- Gadi Eisenkot's Yesh! party is predicted to be the largest party, while Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael may not pass the threshold.
- The polls suggest a potential for repeat elections due to the inability to form a majority government.
- Arab parties are expected to win between 14 and 16 mandates, not aligning with either major bloc.
The final polls released on Friday, the last before the upcoming elections, indicate that no political bloc will secure the 61 mandates needed to form a government. The "change bloc" is projected to lead over the "Netanyahu bloc" by 2 to 6 mandates across three major television channel surveys. The Yesh! party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is predicted to be the largest party in Israel, while Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party is expected to fall below the electoral threshold.
According to the polls from Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13, the "change bloc" is projected to win between 52 and 56 mandates, compared to 50 to 54 mandates for the "Netanyahu bloc." Arab parties, not aligned with either bloc, are expected to garner 14 to 16 mandates. The polls consistently show Amcha Yisrael, led by Ofer Winter, failing to pass the 2.9% electoral threshold. The Reservists-Economic party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, passes the threshold in one poll with 4 mandates but falls short in the other two.
A "poll of polls" averaging the results from the three surveys places Yesh! in the lead with 22 mandates, followed by the Likud with 20. Bayachad is projected at 15 mandates, with the Democrats and the Joint List each at 9. Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, and United Torah Judaism are each expected to receive 8 mandates. Shas and Religious Zionism-Identity are projected at 7 mandates each, and Ra'am at 6.
With approximately 7.3 million eligible voters heading to the polls in four days, the surveys suggest a potential for repeat elections due to the inability of any bloc to form a government. However, the article notes that dramatic shifts are possible depending on voter turnout, votes wasted on parties below the threshold, last-minute changes, and potential reversals of prior commitments by party leaders.
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