Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu in Final Election Poll; Two Parties Miss Threshold
Translated & summarized from Channel 13 by baba
A final election poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leading with 22 seats, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 19 seats, just four days before elections. Two parties, "Amcha Israel" led by Ofer Winter and "HaMiluimnikim VeHaKalkalaim" led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, failed to pass the electoral threshold. Eisenkot's bloc is projected to have 54 mandates compared to Netanyahu's 50. In a hypothetical prime ministerial race, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 47% to 27%.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads final election poll with 22 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud with 19.
- Two parties, "Amcha Israel" and "HaMiluimnikim VeHaKalkalaim," failed to pass the electoral threshold.
- Eisenkot's bloc is projected to have 54 mandates, while Netanyahu's bloc is projected to have 50.
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu 47% to 27% in a hypothetical prime ministerial race.
- 34% of respondents prefer repeat elections if no bloc achieves 61 seats.
A final election poll released four days before voting indicates that Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party would be the largest in Israel if elections were held today, securing 22 seats. This represents a two-seat increase from the previous poll. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party follows with 19 seats.
Two parties that had been fluctuating in recent weeks, Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha's "HaMiluimnikim VeHaKalkalaim," both failed to pass the electoral threshold. "Amcha Israel" garnered 3.1% of the vote, just below the 3.25% threshold, while Hendel and Zelicha's party received 3%. This failure to cross the threshold widens the gap between Eisenkot's bloc and Netanyahu's bloc.
Naftali Bennett's "Achdut" party is projected to be the third-largest with 14 seats, followed by Yair Golan's "HaDemokratim" with 10 seats. The Joint List is expected to receive 9 seats, with Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu," Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin's "HaTzionut HaDatit" and "Identity," and Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" each receiving 8 seats. Yahadut HaTorah also secured 8 seats. Shas is projected to win 7 seats, as is Ra'am, which gained one seat.
The poll breaks down the blocs as follows: Eisenkot's bloc with 54 mandates, Netanyahu's bloc with 50 mandates, and the Arab parties with 16 mandates. In a head-to-head comparison for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 47% to 27%.
Regarding voter turnout, 82% of respondents stated they would definitely vote, with an additional 12% saying they are quite sure they will vote. When asked about the possibility of no bloc achieving 61 seats, 34% preferred repeat elections, while 26% favored a minority government from the change bloc with abstentions from Arab parties. Another 18% preferred a unity government with a rotation between Netanyahu and Eisenkot.
The poll surveyed 1,875 respondents, with a margin of error of 2.3%. It was conducted by HaMadad (Shmuel Rosner, Nach Slifkin) in cooperation with Stat-Net (Yosef Mekalda), HaMidgam Project (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), and Ascaria (Dodi Dror), with statistical consulting from Prof. David Steinberg.
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