Pollster Compares Current Election Landscape to Fragile 2022 Results
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Senior pollster Menachem Lazar warned that the upcoming election results could be as fragile as those in 2022, with a potential shift in mandates depending on whether key candidates pass the electoral threshold. His latest poll shows the opposition bloc leading, but a tie is possible if certain candidates succeed. Lazar also highlighted the challenges of accurately predicting outcomes due to small voter margins near the threshold, potential respondent dishonesty, and unpredictable voter turnout, especially among younger generations influenced by the war.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollster Menachem Lazar warns election results may mirror the fragile 2022 outcome.
- Opposition bloc leads in Lazar's poll with 54 mandates versus coalition's 48.
- Key candidates failing to pass threshold could shift bloc balance significantly.
- Polls face uncertainty from small voter margins and potential respondent dishonesty.
- Voter turnout and the war's impact on young voters are key unpredictable factors.
Four days before the upcoming elections, senior pollster Menachem Lazar has drawn parallels between the current political climate and the 2022 elections, highlighting the fragility of the mandate map. Lazar explained that if two key candidates, referring to Ofer Winter and another unnamed figure, do not pass the electoral threshold, the opposition bloc would lean towards a lead. However, if both pass, the outcome would be a near tie. He recalled the 2022 elections where Meretz failed to cross the threshold, stating, "We returned to 2022 with Meretz not passing the electoral threshold, and you know what happened in the final results."
According to Lazar's latest poll, the coalition bloc is projected to secure 48 mandates, while the Zionist opposition is expected to receive 54. The party led by Handel and Zelicha is predicted to gain an additional four mandates, and the Joint List and Ra'am together would secure 14 mandates. Lazar attributed this outcome partly to Winter not passing the threshold, suggesting that his success would have brought the blocs closer to a tie.
Lazar also discussed the methodology and inherent uncertainties in polling, particularly concerning parties near the electoral threshold. He noted that his current poll surveyed 1,043 respondents, with additional telephone consolidation for Arab and Haredi populations. He emphasized that a difference of just four voters could determine whether a party crosses the threshold, a point he illustrated by saying, "Whether it passes or not is four people. That's how polls work."
Addressing the issue of respondent honesty, Lazar explained that pollsters employ demographic checks and cross-referencing to identify inconsistencies. For example, if a respondent claims to have voted for Hadash in the past and now intends to vote for Otzma Yehudit, this would trigger further scrutiny. However, he acknowledged that these checks have limitations and do not always guarantee complete accuracy.
Furthermore, Lazar pointed to voter turnout as another unpredictable factor. He estimated that turnout might be higher than in the previous election, where it hovered around 70-71 percent, with increased motivation observed among opposition and Arab party voters. He also touched upon the younger generation of voters, suggesting that the ongoing war might be shaping their political views, potentially making them more mature in their decision-making compared to a decade ago.
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