Senior Pollster Reveals Dramatic Election Forecast Four Days Out
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Four days before elections, pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar revealed that Ofer Vinter's 'Amcha Israel' party is not expected to pass the electoral threshold, potentially benefiting the opposition. The latest poll shows the coalition at 48 mandates and the opposition at 54, with the 'Reservists and Economists' party at 4 mandates. Lazar anticipates higher voter turnout, particularly from Arab and opposition voters, boosting Arab parties to 14 mandates. He stressed the sensitivity of results near the threshold.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar predicts Ofer Vinter's party will not pass the electoral threshold.
- The latest poll shows the coalition at 48 mandates and the opposition at 54.
- The 'Reservists and Economists' party is projected to win 4 mandates.
- Higher voter turnout is expected, especially from Arab and opposition voters.
- Arab parties are projected to gain significant strength, reaching 14 mandates.
- Results near the electoral threshold are highly sensitive, depending on few votes.
With just four days remaining until election day, political tensions are escalating. Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research and the pollster behind Maariv's surveys, discussed potential election-deciding scenarios on Radio 103fm.
Lazar analyzed the latest Maariv poll, which shows the 'Reservists and Economists' union, led by Handel and Zalika, narrowly passing the electoral threshold, while Ofer Vinter's 'Amcha Israel' party fails to do so. Lazar stated that Vinter's failure to pass the threshold leans towards the opposition bloc. If both parties had passed, it would result in a near tie between the blocs. He drew a parallel to the 2022 elections when Meretz did not pass the threshold.
According to Lazar's analysis of the current poll, the coalition stands at 48 mandates and the Zionist opposition at 54, with Handel and Zalika's party securing 4 mandates. He reiterated that Vinter's failure to pass is a key reason for this outcome, suggesting that his success would have led to a closer contest between the blocs.
Lazar also highlighted the expected voter turnout, predicting it will be higher than the previous election's approximately 70%-71%. He noted increased motivation among the opposition bloc and Arab party voters. This is reflected in the poll by a significant rise in the strength of Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, which together reach 14 mandates.
When asked about distinguishing truthful responses from misleading ones, Lazar explained that their surveys, like this one with 1,043 respondents, use expanded samples and targeted telephone follow-ups for Arab and Haredi populations. He emphasized the fragility of results near the electoral threshold, noting that passing or failing can depend on just a few individuals.
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