Israeli Election Polls Show Divided Support Ahead of October 27 Vote
Translated & summarized from NEWSru Israel by baba
Five recent Israeli election polls show diverging results ahead of the October 27 vote. Four surveys suggest Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads the Likud, while only Channel 14's poll predicts a majority for the current coalition. Projections for the coalition bloc range from 48 to 62 Knesset mandates, with significant variations in individual party support, especially for Likud. Concerns about election violations were raised by 59% of respondents in one poll.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Five Israeli election polls released Oct 21-23 show varied results for the Oct 27 Knesset vote.
- Four polls indicate Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud.
- Projected mandates for the current coalition range from 48 to 62.
- Channel 14's poll is the only one predicting a majority for the current coalition.
- Eisenkot is preferred over Netanyahu as prime minister in three of the five polls.
- 59% of respondents in one poll expressed concern about potential election violations.
Five pre-election opinion polls published in Israel between October 21-23 reveal significant discrepancies in projected party standings ahead of the Knesset elections on October 27. Four of the surveys indicate a lead for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party over the Likud, while only one, from Channel 14, suggests the current coalition parties could secure a parliamentary majority.
The Maariv newspaper poll, conducted by Lazar Mekhkarim, shows Yashar with 21 mandates and Likud with 19. The current coalition bloc is projected to win 48 mandates, opposition Zionist parties 54, and Arab parties 14. This poll indicates a loss of three mandates for the coalition bloc compared to a previous Maariv survey, with Likud, Shas, and Tzionut Datit gaining one mandate each, while Otzma Yehudit and Yahadut HaTorah lose one each. Ofer Winter's Amcha Israel party, with 3% of the vote, is projected to fall short of the electoral threshold.
According to a Kantar poll for A-Yom newspaper, Yashar is expected to receive 23 mandates and Likud 21. This survey predicts 50 mandates for the current coalition and 56 for opposition Zionist parties, including the joint list of Hendel and Zelicha. Bayahad gains two mandates compared to a previous survey, while Yashar and NDI each lose one. Security and war are cited as the primary factors influencing party choice by 26% of respondents, followed by the cost of living and the economy at 23%.
A survey by Yossi Tatika and Adgenda for Zman Israel shows Yashar with 23 mandates and Likud with 21. The current coalition bloc is projected to receive 51 mandates, the same number as opposition Zionist parties excluding the Hendel-Zelicha list. If this list is included with the opposition, they could reach 55 mandates. The poll also indicates that 59.6% of respondents believe Netanyahu should leave politics if he fails to form a government after the elections.
The Channel 14 poll, conducted by NEXT DATA, is an outlier, projecting 30 mandates for Likud and 20 for Yashar. This survey is the only one of the five to suggest the current coalition will achieve a parliamentary majority, with 62 mandates. In a direct comparison for prime minister, Netanyahu leads Eisenkot 55% to 45% in this poll.
Finally, a News 13 poll conducted by A-Madad projects Yashar with 20 mandates and Likud with 19. The current coalition bloc is expected to win 49 mandates, while opposition Zionist parties would receive 52. This poll also shows Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu as the preferred prime minister candidate (46% to 38%) and indicates that 59% of respondents are concerned about potential election violations.
Overall, the five polls give the current coalition bloc between 48 and 62 mandates, and opposition Zionist parties between 44 and 54. Significant variations exist in projections for individual parties, particularly Likud, with estimates ranging from 19 to 30 mandates. Yashar's support appears more stable, between 20 and 23 mandates. Ofer Winter's party consistently falls below the electoral threshold in all polls, while the Hendel-Zelicha list crosses it in four out of five.
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