US Aid to Israel at Risk as Support Erodes, Expert Warns

The upcoming US midterm elections, which could see Democrats gain control of Congress, pose a long-term threat to the strategic relationship between the US and Israel, according to Dr. Eli Kook, a lecturer and head of the US Studies Program at the University of Haifa. While President Donald Trump's veto power and policies currently shield the relationship and military aid, a dangerous undercurrent of declining American support for Israel is spreading beyond fringe groups and affecting the liberal public, young Republicans, and political power bases. Kook suggests that the era of significant security aid may be nearing its end.

Even if Democrats win both houses of Congress, Trump's executive authority means immediate policy changes are unlikely in the short term. He has the power to veto legislation, such as a proposed bill to block arms shipments to Israel that garnered 40 Senate votes previously. Kook notes that Trump operates independently of Congress, citing his decisions on Iran and arms shipments as examples. However, the long-term implications are significant, with nearly half of House Democrats supporting aid cessation and proposals for sanctions on settlement construction already introduced.

Paradoxically, Trump's strong pro-Israel stance, including moving the embassy and brokering normalization deals, may have inadvertently strengthened the perception among Democrats of an alliance between the Republican administration and the Israeli right. This, Kook explains, can lead to a negative association for those who oppose Trump. The erosion of support is not confined to Democrats; polls show a shift among young Republicans as well, indicating a broader, all-American phenomenon.

The war in Gaza and its destructive imagery have played a role, but Kook identifies the conflict with Iran as a key turning point. Americans, he states, did not want this war and are particularly sensitive to rising fuel prices, with a perception that Israel dragged the US into it. While the alliance is built on shared interests, including geopolitical considerations and the influence of Jewish donors, the perception of Israel as a political liability rather than an asset is growing, particularly within the Democratic party.

Kook believes that Netanyahu recognizes the declining willingness of Americans to provide aid and is framing the potential reduction as a choice. He predicts that the annual $3.8 billion in aid, as provided under the Obama administration in 2016, is unlikely to continue under future leadership, whether Democratic or Republican. Trump's administration currently acts as a shield against European sanctions, but this protection is seen as dependent on him personally. His broader policy of weakening US global engagement means Europe may need to assume more responsibility for its own security, potentially altering its support for Israeli initiatives previously tied to American protection.

Kook suggests that a new Israeli leader, one who presents Israel as less aggressive and willing to engage in a peace process, could significantly improve relations with Democrats and potentially even Republicans, who are also showing signs of shifting views. He argues that the current Israeli political trend towards the right since October 7th is counterproductive to mending ties with the US. The American public's view of Israel has become emotional rather than purely rational, making it a deeply ingrained sentiment that is unlikely to change quickly, even with a change in Israeli leadership.