Global Birthrate Collapse Contrasts Sharply With Israel's Demographic Anomaly
Translated & summarized from Makor Rishon by baba
A new study by researchers Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Patrick Nouriq indicates a significant global decline in birthrates, with many countries falling below replacement levels. Israel is a notable exception, maintaining a high fertility rate due to factors including its secular population's reproductive choices. While this demographic anomaly offers a potential model for other nations, experts caution that Israel's unique situation may not be permanent, with potential future declines on the horizon.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Global fertility rates are collapsing, with many nations falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
- Israel remains a unique exception, maintaining a high birthrate unlike most developed and developing countries.
- Secular Israeli women have significantly higher fertility rates than their counterparts in other Western nations.
- Researchers suggest historical trauma and ongoing security concerns may contribute to Israel's demographic anomaly.
- Experts warn that Israel's high fertility rate might be temporary due to trends like delayed childbirth.
A new study by demographer Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and economist Patrick Nouriq reveals a dramatic global decline in birthrates, a trend that has largely bypassed Israel. The researchers analyzed fertility rates in 236 territories since 1950, finding a clear negative trend in 219 of them. While developed nations were once thought to be the primary focus of this "birth dearth," the study highlights a significant collapse in fertility rates across developing countries as well. For instance, Colombia's fertility rate dropped from 1.9 in 2015 to 1.01 in 2025, Thailand's from 1.5 to 0.87, and Turkey's from 2.19 to 1.48 in the same period. China, Mexico, Argentina, and many other nations are experiencing similar sharp declines, with global population predicted to shrink starting in 2056.
Contrary to prevailing assumptions, the study suggests that economic prosperity is no longer inversely correlated with birthrates. While historically, higher living standards led to fewer children, since 1977, the correlation has reversed in many OECD countries, with increased wealth now associated with higher fertility. This shift is also observed in developing nations, where economic empowerment programs have sometimes led to increased birthrates. The study notes that even in the United States, the fertility rate among Black women has fallen below that of non-Hispanic white women.
Israel stands out as a stark exception to this global trend. The country's fertility rate in 2024 was 2.87 children per woman, a figure that has remained stable since 1991. This anomaly is not solely due to its Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) population; even secular Israeli women have an average of 1.98 children, significantly higher than their counterparts in other developed nations. Researchers like Yani Spitzer and Alex Weinreb suggest potential factors for Israel's unique demographic situation, including historical trauma like the Holocaust, the ongoing existential security situation, and a strong community and family culture.
However, Spitzer warns that Israel's demographic advantage might be temporary. Secular women are delaying childbirth, and a decline in fertility rates among the Haredi and religious sectors has begun. Weinreb estimates that secular women in Israel may average only 1.5 children by the next decade. While Israel currently defies the global trend, the long-term implications of its unique demographic path, including infrastructure demands and potential future shifts, remain subjects of ongoing study and concern.