Israel's Next Government Faces Seven Crucial Decisions

Following the upcoming elections on October 27, Israel's next government will confront significant challenges across security, education, Judea and Samaria, military conscription, transportation, and regional relations. The security apparatus requires a fundamental shift in strategy, moving beyond intelligence and technological deterrence to focus on readily available forces, high alert, rapid response, and a functioning command chain. A state commission of inquiry is deemed essential to investigate the failures leading to the October 7th attacks. The government must also ensure that terror organizations cannot rearm and rebuild their strength near Israel's borders post-war, while simultaneously restoring public trust in the security establishment and strengthening border communities.

The education system faces a critical juncture, with a severe teacher shortage and declining international rankings. Key decisions include addressing overcrowded classrooms, potentially by reducing class sizes to 20 students, a move estimated to cost NIS 15 billion. The growing Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) education sector, which largely operates outside state oversight and receives substantial funding without fully teaching core subjects, presents a significant challenge. The government must decide how to integrate Haredi teachers into national frameworks and ensure accountability for curriculum standards.

In Judea and Samaria, the next government must define Israel's sovereign future amidst a growing population on both sides. The expansion of settlements and the rise of Jewish terrorism necessitate a clear policy direction, whether towards sovereignty, separation, or encouraging emigration. International pressure regarding the situation in the region, particularly concerning attacks on foreign nationals, demands a definitive solution.

The issue of Haredi conscription into the IDF remains a contentious point, with the Haredi leadership opposing it. Despite this, there has been a nearly 50% increase in Haredi enlistment in recent years, partly due to economic and legal sanctions. The government will need to leverage these financial and punitive measures more effectively to enforce conscription.

A stalled reform to establish metropolitan transportation authorities, aimed at decentralizing public transport management, needs to be revived. This reform, which received broad political support before being shelved, would transfer authority to regional bodies to better tailor services to local needs. The government must secure funding and oversight mechanisms for these new authorities.

Regionally, the next government will inherit a complex landscape shaped by the October 7th attacks. Relations with Syria, under its new president Ahmed al-Shar'a, and Saudi Arabia, whose Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has shifted from discussing normalization to condemning Israeli actions, will require careful navigation. The government must also contend with the strengthening of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood axis led by Turkey's Erdogan, while managing the weakened but still present pro-Iranian Shiite axis.

Finally, the government must address the existential threat posed by a potential vulnerability in Israel's narrow central region during wartime, ensuring a robust defense against threats that could destabilize the entire country.