Palestinians Brace for Impact of Israeli Elections Regardless of Outcome

Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will not vote in Israel's upcoming elections on October 27, but the results could significantly impact their political, security, and economic futures. Issues such as settlement expansion, movement restrictions, frozen Palestinian funds, and the future of a Gaza ceasefire are all expected to be influenced by the election's outcome, extending beyond Israeli domestic politics. Observers suggest the key question for Palestinians is not whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, but whether the next Israeli government will continue or alter the policies established in recent years. Even a less hardline coalition might not necessarily lead to renewed negotiations or a commitment to a two-state solution.

The elections gain additional significance following the October 7, 2023 attacks and the ongoing war in Gaza, alongside the rise of nationalist and settler movements within Israel. The Palestinian Authority hopes for relief from financial and security pressures, while Gazans are focused on a ceasefire and reconstruction. In East Jerusalem, concerns center on demolition orders, land issues, and daily life restrictions.

Palestinian officials, like government spokesperson Mohammad Abu Al-Rabb, see potential for policy adjustments, especially if the elections coincide with US midterm elections, but do not anticipate a swift breakthrough or a radical shift in Israeli approach. Analysts note that any new Israeli government will inherit institutional and legislative frameworks built over years, particularly concerning West Bank settlements and land management. Removing hardline parties from a coalition would not automatically dismantle existing measures or halt settlement expansion. Even opposition figures like Gadi Eisenkot, while opposing specific annexation steps, have indicated a Palestinian state would not be established under their leadership, highlighting a gap between opposing specific actions and supporting a comprehensive political settlement.

Settlement activity continues to advance, with tenders for 2,167 settlement units issued in September, bringing the total for the E1 project to 3,401. This project raises Palestinian concerns about its impact on geographical contiguity in the West Bank and the connection between East Jerusalem and its Palestinian surroundings. Researchers argue that the future of Palestinian land is influenced by decisions made before a new government is formed, not solely by the election winner. Settler violence and the displacement of 20 families in the Jordan Valley are also noted concerns.

Despite the potential impact, the Palestinian issue is not a central focus of the Israeli electoral mood, with domestic concerns like the conscription of Haredi Jews taking precedence. While many Israelis might prefer a government without Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir, this does not guarantee a fundamental policy change towards Palestinians. Observers believe change is limited due to the weakness of the Israeli left, though international pressure and damage to Israel's standing could prompt some policy reviews without ensuring a shift on Palestinian rights.

In East Jerusalem, election results are tied to daily anxieties about land, housing, demolitions, taxes, and security. Current government representatives have strengthened their influence in institutions affecting Palestinian lives, while right-wing groups provide information that can lead to demolitions. These practices are linked to broader pressures on Palestinian presence in the city, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque and commercial activities. Palestinian expectations focus on halting measures affecting daily life rather than an imminent political settlement.

For Gaza, attention is on the future of the ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction, as well as Hamas's arsenal. Election results may affect the Israeli government's maneuvering room on these issues, but will not solely resolve disputes over security, withdrawal, and disarmament. A coalition less reliant on parties advocating continued military pressure might offer more room for negotiation, but progress depends on inter-party agreements and new government decisions. Conversely, the continuation of the current coalition could perpetuate disagreements on the post-ceasefire phase.

Peace networks are attempting to regain influence, with a recent Geneva Peace Conference involving former Israeli and Palestinian political, security, and military figures. Pro-settlement forces are urged to articulate clear demands for the next government, including halting settlement expansion, releasing frozen Palestinian funds, and opening a serious political path toward ending the occupation and a two-state solution. However, the impact of these initiatives is seen as limited without shifts in Israeli political power, effective international pressure, and a more proactive Palestinian stance.

Palestinian calculations face three scenarios: a government less reliant on hardliners, potentially easing some pressures; a return of a right-wing coalition continuing settlement policies; or continued political stalemate if a stable government cannot be formed. The true test will be on-the-ground decisions regarding settlement expansion, funds, movement, East Jerusalem measures, and Gaza reconstruction, rather than just the identity of the new prime minister. Reversing established realities requires political, legislative, and security decisions beyond a mere change in leadership.