Knesset Election Threshold Requires Fewer Votes Than Previously Estimated

The Taub Center has revised its estimate for the number of votes required to enter the Knesset, lowering the threshold due to final election committee data indicating fewer eligible voters than initially projected. With 7,331,981 eligible voters, the center estimates that a party would need approximately 165,635 votes to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, assuming a 70% voter turnout similar to the 2022 election and 99.3% valid votes. This revised figure is lower than previous estimates based on higher projected voter numbers.

Professor Alex Wienerb, who conducted the analysis, noted that the actual number of votes needed will fluctuate with the final turnout. For instance, at a 60% turnout, the threshold would be around 141,973 votes, rising to 177,466 at 75% turnout and 189,297 at 80% turnout. Each percentage point increase in turnout raises the entry threshold by about 2,370 votes. The threshold would only fall below the 2022 figure of 154,854 votes if turnout drops below approximately 65.5%.

These updated calculations come as a Channel 14 poll suggests four parties are currently below the electoral threshold. The poll, conducted after Benny Gantz withdrew from the Knesset race, shows the Reservists-Economic party at 2.5%, Ofek Israel led by Ofer Vinter at 1.9%, Noam Israel at 0.9%, and Achi, Returning to Roots at 0.4%. The Haredi Public party also received 0.9%.

Based on the poll's findings and a 70% turnout scenario, a party with 2.5% of the vote would need an additional 38,000 votes to pass the threshold, while a party with 1.9% would require about 69,000 more votes. These are illustrative calculations, as actual turnout and vote distribution may differ. The poll also indicated the Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, as the largest party with 30 seats, followed by the Yesh Atid party led by Gadi Eisenkot with 20 seats. The Right bloc is projected to have 62 seats, the Left bloc 44, and Arab parties 14.

The Taub Center emphasized that while the vote threshold percentage remains unchanged at 3.25%, the reduced number of eligible voters means fewer votes are needed to clear it. However, failing to cross this threshold means a party will not be allocated Knesset seats, regardless of the votes received, and passing it can significantly impact seat distribution and bloc power.