Analysis of Past Elections Reveals Socioeconomic Impact on Voting Blocs

An analysis of past Israeli Knesset elections, specifically the 24th and 25th, reveals a strong correlation between socioeconomic status and voting patterns for political blocs. The study, conducted by analyst Nir Smilga for N12, indicates that in areas with a predominantly Jewish population, lower socioeconomic clusters tended to vote for coalition parties, while higher socioeconomic clusters leaned towards opposition parties. This trend was consistent in both the 2021 and the most recent elections.

The coalition parties did not secure a majority in any locality classified in the highest socioeconomic clusters (8, 9, or 10), and only in a few in clusters 7 and 6. Conversely, in areas with a socioeconomic cluster below 5, only three localities saw a majority vote for opposition parties: Karmiel, Ma'alot Tarshiha, and Nof HaGalil. Within cities like Tel Aviv, affluent neighborhoods predominantly voted for the opposition, while lower-income neighborhoods supported the coalition. The picture shifts slightly when considering the Arab population, as many Arab towns, often in lower socioeconomic clusters, voted overwhelmingly for Arab parties aligned with the opposition.

Turnout rates are identified as a critical factor that could determine election outcomes. Nationally, the turnout was 70.6% in the last election, with approximately 2 million Israelis not voting. Among Israel's 16 largest cities, Bat Yam had the lowest turnout at 51%, with most votes going to the coalition. Haifa followed with 56% turnout. Jerusalem and Tel Aviv also saw below-average turnout at 62% and 60% respectively. Bnei Brak led in turnout among large cities with 77%, predominantly for ultra-Orthodox parties, followed by Kfar Saba at 70%. Modi'in Illit and Beitar Illit recorded high turnouts of 82%, while Umm al-Fahm had a low turnout of about 38%. In smaller communities, Druze villages in the Golan Heights, such as Majdal Shams and Buqata, had very low turnouts, with less than a quarter of residents voting.

The analysis also highlights potential vote reservoirs for each bloc. Tel Aviv, despite its opposition-leaning majority, had a turnout of only 60%, suggesting a significant untapped potential for the opposition. Jerusalem is identified as a key city for the opposition, though its support for opposition parties has declined, and turnout was significantly below the national average, indicating potential swing votes or opposition supporters who did not vote. For the coalition, Jerusalem is a primary focus, with a strong majority for coalition parties and low turnout, suggesting that encouraging votes there would benefit the coalition. Other cities noted for campaign focus include Tel Aviv, Netanya, Haifa, and Beersheba.

Smilga's campaign focus analysis considers the bloc's share of votes in a locality, turnout compared to the national average, and changes in vote share between the 24th and 25th Knessets. The analysis differentiates between parties that formed the coalition and those in the opposition in the last elections, acknowledging that new parties in the current election could alter the bloc dynamics. Smilga emphasized the analysis's unique ability to combine comparative metrics with granular data down to the neighborhood and polling station level, allowing for examination from multiple perspectives and filtering by various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.