US Support, Lack of Accountability Deepen Gaza Crisis, Analyst Says

More than a year after a supposed ceasefire in Gaza took effect on October 10, 2025, neither the agreement nor a supposed 20-point American peace plan has yielded significant progress toward ending what the article describes as Israel's "genocide" in the Strip. Instead of halting the war and beginning reconstruction, the situation has worsened, with Israel maintaining its occupation of much of Gaza, tightening its blockade, and undermining international law. This poses a direct threat to Palestinian lives and fuels fears of a forced displacement and annexation of the Strip, according to American foreign policy analyst Alexander Lonnguist.

Lonnguist, writing in The American Conservative, notes that the US government presents a different narrative, calling the past year "progress" and a "historic breakthrough" with "exceptional results." This aligns with statements from figures in the Trump administration and those associated with the "Peace Council," an entity reportedly established to oversee Gaza's reconstruction. Lonnguist, a senior editor at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), believes this mindset is the greatest threat to Palestinians in Gaza. He states that since the ceasefire announcement, Israel has killed 1,505 Palestinians and injured 5,332, adding to the approximately 250,000 victims since October 2023. Israel continues to bomb targets, conduct targeted assassinations of Hamas officials in violation of the ceasefire, and destroy parts of Gaza, including cities like Rafah, which Lonnguist characterizes as "urban genocide."

Despite Israel allowing more aid into Gaza, the increase is minimal, only improving food security indicators from famine to crisis levels for about 1.2 million Palestinians, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Lonnguist, who also serves as editor-in-chief of DAWN's "Democracy in Exile" magazine, argues that Israeli restrictions on Gaza's border crossings are central to the blockade, preventing essential goods like fuel, medical supplies, and building materials. Furthermore, Israel continues to deny medical evacuations for over 21,000 injured Palestinians, with more than 2,000 having died while awaiting treatment abroad.

The United Nations, major humanitarian organizations, and prominent human rights groups have condemned Israel's policies in Gaza, with many experts calling the situation "genocide." The International Court of Justice issued a preliminary ruling in January 2024, finding a real risk of irreparable harm to Palestinians and that Israel's actions may violate their rights and protection from genocide. Lonnguist asserts that Washington's complicity, through aid and support to Israel, "stains liberal democracy" and that the US has directly facilitated genocide by selling tens of billions of dollars in weapons that have killed Palestinian civilians. He warns that Trump's "Peace Council" may aim to assist Israel in ethnic cleansing through land seizure under the guise of "development" and "Israeli security."

Lonnguist criticizes European governments for largely echoing US statements of "regret" and "concern" while avoiding angering the US for fear of losing support in Ukraine. He points to Washington's October 9 sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) for issuing arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as evidence of a broader policy to undermine the rule of law and support an era where "might makes right." This ideological approach, he argues, allows for continued "crimes associated with Gaza and other areas of the world." Lonnguist concludes that the current reality, where human rights are not prioritized over raw power, signifies the "actual death of the so-called ‘rules-based order.’"

Despite this grim outlook, Lonnguist sees hope in a growing global rejection of authoritarian and criminal tendencies, increased support for the Palestinian cause, and growing recognition of the "genocide" in Gaza. He believes these shifts, coupled with changes in political calculations regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could eventually lead to justice for the victims. However, he stresses that this change "will not come quickly enough to vindicate those who have lost their lives" but could still save the future for Palestinians. In the meantime, the current situation in Gaza is likely to persist, necessitating continued efforts by human rights and humanitarian organizations to advocate for an end to the "genocide" and pressure Washington to ensure it stops.