Gantz Withdrawal Disrupts Opposition, Creates New Scenarios for Netanyahu Bloc

Political analyst Dr. Selim Breik stated that Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the upcoming Knesset elections on October 27, 2026, will lead to a redistribution of votes within the opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Breik believes this move could prevent vote wastage that would have gone to Gantz's National Unity Party had it failed to pass the electoral threshold. Polls indicated Gantz's party was unlikely to meet the required percentage to enter parliament.

Breik explained that Gantz's departure could benefit parties opposing Netanyahu, as some of his supporters might shift their allegiance. He also noted that Gantz's continued participation had raised the possibility of him supporting Netanyahu, as he had done previously. The analyst estimated Gantz's party faces debts of approximately 11 million shekels, suggesting the withdrawal also saves funds.

Supporters of Gantz may consider other political options, potentially including Naftali Bennett's party, though the extent of this shift depends on evolving political stances and campaign developments. Breik cautioned against premature optimism regarding Arab voter turnout, emphasizing that current estimates do not guarantee the desired participation levels. He recalled higher Arab turnout rates in past elections, ranging from 76% to 78%, and warned that early reports of high turnout could reduce efforts in the final week.

Breik criticized the performance of Arab parties during the campaign as weak and concerning, citing lengthy negotiations that diverted time from voter outreach. He also warned of attempts to influence Arab voters through fabricated polls or by raising fears about future political positions. The decision to allow approximately 2,000 Likud-affiliated observers at polling stations could also create apprehension among Arab voters, he added.

Positively, Breik highlighted an existing surplus vote agreement between the two Arab lists, which could help minimize vote loss in seat allocation. He stressed the importance of coordination between these lists and their ability to mobilize voters beyond political understandings. Breik concluded by emphasizing the need for intensified fieldwork and direct communication with citizens in the final days, warning that underestimating turnout could lead to results that do not reflect the potential participation. He views electoral participation as a key tool for Arab citizens to influence policies affecting their daily lives.