Gantz's Exit Paradoxically Boosts Netanyahu's Chances

By ישראל זאב לוונטהל לוונטהל

Translated & summarized from JDN by baba

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Hebrew · 4 newsrooms covering

Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the Knesset election race may improve Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of forming the next government. Most of Gantz's votes are going to opposition parties, but a small number to the 'Reservists/Economic' list pushed it over the electoral threshold. This shift could give the right-wing bloc 59 seats, with potential increases to 61 or 62 under other withdrawal scenarios. The outcome depends on vote distribution and voter turnout.

The story in 6 lines · by baba

Benny Gantz's party withdrawal may boost Benjamin Netanyahu's government formation chances.
Most of Gantz's votes are shifting to opposition parties, mainly Gadi Eisenkot's list.
A small voter transfer to the 'Reservists/Economic' list pushed it over the electoral threshold.
The right-wing bloc, with 'Reservists/Economic', is projected to have 59 Knesset seats.
Further withdrawals could increase the bloc's seats to 61 or 62.
The final seat count depends on vote distribution and voter turnout.

Gantz's Exit Paradoxically Boosts Netanyahu's Chances — Editorial illustration generated by baba News, not a photograph of the event.

The withdrawal of Benny Gantz and his 'Blue and White' party from the Knesset election race may paradoxically improve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of forming the next government, despite most of Gantz's votes shifting to opposition parties. An analysis by 'Ha'Brometer' of 'JDN News' suggests the key lies in a small portion of Gantz's voters moving to the 'Reservists/Economic' list, which was enough to push it over the electoral threshold. While the majority of Gantz's supporters are moving to opposition parties, particularly to Gadi Eisenkot's list, the significant shift in Knesset seat distribution stems from the smaller, but crucial, transfer of votes to 'Reservists/Economic'. This list, previously on the verge of entering the Knesset, now benefits from its entire vote count being factored into the seat allocation. Consequently, a relatively minor voter movement can alter the entire parliamentary arithmetic. The updated 'Ha'Brometer' calculation places the right-wing bloc, along with 'Reservists/Economic', at 59 seats. The analysis also outlines two additional scenarios: the withdrawal of Ofer Vinter's 'Am Israel' list could increase the bloc's seats to 61, and if the 'Noam' party also withdraws, the estimate could reach 61 to 62 seats. These scenarios depend on how the votes of the withdrawing lists are distributed among other parties and how many of their voters actually turn out. Even a numerical majority does not guarantee political agreement on forming a government, but Gantz's withdrawal may have shifted the starting point in Netanyahu's favor.