Gantz Quits Knesset Race, Shifting Political Landscape

Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity party, announced on Monday, October 19, that he is withdrawing his party from the upcoming Knesset elections scheduled for October 27. This move leaves Yoaz Hendel's party as the sole remnant of the bloc that had advocated for unity and political agreements.

Political commentator Yuval Karn of Ynet suggests that Hendel's party stands to gain the most from Gantz's decision, as Hendel, like Gantz, does not align with either the "change bloc" or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp. However, Karn cautions that the potential transfer of votes is limited, as National Unity was polling below the electoral threshold with only a few thousand votes, not enough for multiple Knesset seats.

Hendel himself had previously refused a joint electoral run with Gantz. Gantz had also distanced himself from the "change bloc," accusing leaders like Gadi Eisenkot, Avigdor Lieberman, and Naftali Bennett of intending to form a government with Arab parties, including Balad and Ahmed Tibi's faction, a tactic previously employed by Netanyahu.

Karn does not anticipate a significant shift of Gantz's supporters towards Netanyahu. Gantz had previously expressed confidence in his party's electoral potential, citing polls that suggested a six-to-eight mandate capacity for his unity platform. Despite his professional team's advice to continue the campaign, Gantz ultimately decided to withdraw eight days before the vote, linking the timing to the commencement of military voting.

Internal party dissent also played a role. While some members like Hili Tropper and Michael Biton remained with Gantz, Knesset Member Alon Schuster reportedly conditioned his support on the party having a realistic chance of passing the electoral threshold. Gantz did not accept a meeting with former partner Gadi Eisenkot, who had intended to persuade him to withdraw.

Despite the withdrawal, Gantz stated he would continue to pursue the formation of a unity government outside the election campaign. He and his party's Knesset members will retain their mandates until the new Knesset is sworn in, approximately two weeks after the elections. The party had also completed its appointments for election committee members, positions that are paid and will reportedly remain filled to ensure voting integrity.

Karn notes that Gantz's decision comes after a dramatic fall in support, with polls in early October 2023 showing his party with nearly 40 mandates, a stark contrast to his current withdrawal.