Gantz Quits Knesset Race, Potential Vote Shift Analyzed

Benny Gantz, leader of the 'Kachol-Laván' party and former defense minister, has withdrawn from the upcoming Knesset elections, scheduled for October 27. The announcement came on Monday, October 19, just eight days before the vote. Despite his withdrawal, Gantz's party members will still participate in election commissions to monitor the voting process.

Political commentator Yuval Karny, writing for Ynet, suggests that the votes Gantz might have garnered could potentially benefit Yoaz Hendel's party the most. Hendel's party, along with that of Yaron Zelicha, represents a bloc advocating for unity and political agreements. Karny notes that Hendel, like Gantz, does not align with either the 'change bloc' or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp. However, the commentator cautions that the expected transfer of votes is likely to be minimal, as 'Kachol-Laván' was polling below the electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset, with only a few thousand votes at stake, not parliamentary seats.

Gantz's decision to withdraw followed a period of internal debate. While a professional team advised him to continue the campaign, citing encouraging poll numbers that suggested his call for unity could yield six to eight mandates, some within the party also pushed for withdrawal. Knesset Member Alon Schuster supported Gantz's decision, provided the party was not guaranteed to pass the electoral threshold, to avoid wasting votes. Other party members like Hili Tropper and Michael Biton reportedly disagreed with Gantz's continued participation.

Earlier, Gantz had publicly committed to staying in the race, rejecting calls to withdraw and accusing leaders of the 'change bloc' of cynicism. He had cited polls indicating his unity platform could be successful. His decision to announce his withdrawal the day before military personnel began voting was strategic. Gantz also stated his intention to continue pursuing the formation of a unity government outside the election campaign, and he and his list members will retain their Knesset seats until the new Knesset is sworn in.

The 'Kachol-Laván' campaign had a budget of approximately 15 million shekels, funded by state financing units allocated based on the party's previous mandate count. Despite the withdrawal, party sources indicated that appointed positions in electoral commissions, which are paid, would remain unchanged, with activists continuing their work to ensure voting integrity.

Karny observes that Gantz's withdrawal reflects significant shifts in Israeli politics, contrasting sharply with poll numbers from the start of the war in October 2023, which showed his party potentially winning nearly 40 mandates. The current decline in support necessitated his exit from the race.