Israel Weighs Iran Conflict Amid US Election and Domestic Politics

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated he made no promises to U.S. President Donald Trump in return for a supportive statement, though "there are usually no free gifts" from Trump. Netanyahu may concede on other issues important to Trump, such as a "Gaza Emirate" for reconstruction before Hamas is disarmed, in pursuit of his "holy grail": the fall of Iran's regime. Defense Secretary's visit and Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu is linked to the possibility of renewed conflict with Iran. midterm elections. Netanyahu has called confronting Iran "the work of his life" and has instructed security forces to aim for regime change, indicating a willingness to cooperate with Trump on other matters to achieve this goal. This heightened tension around the Israeli election date significantly increases the risk of miscalculation with Iran, potentially leading to a preemptive strike. Israel has warned of an unprecedented response if Iran makes a mistake, possibly targeting infrastructure and energy facilities to accelerate regime collapse, though success is not guaranteed. Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has informed the U.S. that a renewed conflict before October 27 could lead to the postponement of Israeli elections. An Israeli source estimates a 30% chance of renewed conflict before October 27, with a 70% chance it will not occur before then. Trump has stated the conflict will end one way or another after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Apart from Chief of Staff Zamir, most senior security officials, being Netanyahu appointees, are not expected to question his motives. A cabinet approval would be required for a preemptive war, though an Iranian attack could alter this situation.