Early Voting in Israeli Embassies Signals High Turnout, Challenges Arab Parties

Early voting in Israeli embassies and missions worldwide on October 15 saw an 86.7% turnout, with 4,218 out of 4,863 eligible voters participating. This figure represents a significant increase from the 69.6% turnout in the 2022 elections. The high participation rate, nearly 87%, is seen as an indicator of Israeli public interest in what is considered a pivotal election.

The early vote also suggests a deep and widespread sense of genuine competition between a government camp determined to stay in power and an opposition striving to take control, with some in the opposition believing this may be their last chance for a long time. Political appointments based on loyalty to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Saar have reportedly extended to the diplomatic corps and senior officials in global Zionist organizations.

The content of the embassy votes remains unknown until the final tally on October 27, alongside soldier votes. The military is noted to have a growing representation of religious Zionist soldiers and officers, with many conscripts, including a significant portion supporting the far-right, voting for the first time.

If the embassy turnout is indicative of the general election, it poses a challenge to Arab parties. Their expected turnout is projected to rise from 53% in 2022 to around 70%, potentially securing 14-15 crucial parliamentary seats. Historically, there has been a significant gap in voter turnout favoring the Jewish population, but a 70% Arab turnout would exceed the increase among Jewish voters.

The election campaign is marked by intense competition within Netanyahu's bloc, particularly among the far-right, center-right, and Arab parties, all striving to maximize votes. Netanyahu is making efforts to regain support from an estimated 20% of his previous base that has shifted to the opposition, but internal divisions, especially concerning the future role of Ben-Gvir, persist. The withdrawal of Benny Gantz from the electoral race benefits the opposition, particularly Eisenkot's Yachad party. Netanyahu is reportedly attempting to pressure Winter's Amcha-Israel party to withdraw in favor of Smotrich. A conflict is also escalating between the Shas party and Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, following a religious ruling by Rabbi Yosef against voting for Ben-Gvir due to his prayer at the Temple Mount and Al-Aqsa Mosque.

U.S. President Trump has offered Netanyahu moral support, citing their partnership on the Iran issue. However, this support is considered to have a limited impact, as most Israelis have already decided their stance, and a new conflict with Iran is not favored due to its uncontrollable nature and potential consequences for the home front. The opposition views Gantz's withdrawal as more significant than Trump's endorsement.

The final week of the campaign focuses on mobilizing voters. There are concerns that Netanyahu's camp may attempt to suppress Arab votes, which are seen as decisive in potentially unseating the current coalition given the near-even split between the two main blocs. Preparations for election day include ensuring voter turnout, facilitating transportation for those in need, and safeguarding polling stations against disruption. The Likud and far-right plan to deploy 2,000 observers from the "Hilltop Youth" militias to monitor Arab polling stations, aiming to suppress Arab voter turnout.

Arab society is experiencing a strong mobilization and enthusiasm for participation. If electoral obstacles are overcome, Arab turnout could reach record levels. The high turnout in embassies serves as a catalyst for both the coalition and opposition to encourage maximum participation. For Arab parties, it presents a challenge requiring an intensive campaign to surpass 70% turnout. The right wing believes a 20% increase in Jewish voter turnout would mitigate the impact of higher Arab turnout, aiming to avoid a decisive defeat and secure a narrow victory.

Trump's endorsement and Gantz's withdrawal are seen as pushing towards a national unity government not reliant on Arab parliamentary representation. The Likud and its allies are expected to continue efforts to suppress Arab votes and participation to prevent the fall of the ruling coalition. Trump's support for Netanyahu is viewed as transactional, tied to Iran and leverage over Gaza and the West Bank.