Pollster Rosner Predicts No Clear Winner in Upcoming Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Pollster Shmuel Rosner predicts that neither political bloc will achieve the 61 seats necessary to form a government in the upcoming Israeli elections. He attributes this to expected high Arab voter turnout and a fragmented political system. Rosner also discussed U.S. President Donald Trump's strong, and somewhat surprising, endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, suggesting it stems from personal identification and a low political risk for Trump. The outcome may result in a government formation deadlock.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Pollster Shmuel Rosner predicts no bloc will reach 61 seats for government formation.
- High Arab voter turnout is expected to complicate majority calculations.
- The political system is fragmented with many parties holding significant seats.
- Young voters show some unique trends but don't drastically differ from older voters.
- President Trump's strong support for Netanyahu stems from personal identification.
- Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu was seen as politically safe for the U.S. President.
Pollster and commentator Shmuel Rosner believes it is unlikely that either bloc will secure the 61 seats needed to form a government in the upcoming Knesset elections. Rosner, who works with "HaMadad" and is a pollster for Channel 13 and commentator for Maariv, stated in an interview with 103FM Radio that current poll data does not indicate a decisive outcome.
He cited the expected significant voter turnout in the Arab community as a factor that could hinder both blocs from reaching a majority. "There will be significant Arab voting, and they will get 14 or 15 seats, so it's hard for me to see either bloc reaching 61 out of 105," Rosner explained. He also pointed to the fragmentation of the political landscape, where major parties are not gaining substantial strength as they did in the past, leading to a situation with potentially five or six parties holding between ten and twenty seats each.
Rosner expressed skepticism about young, first-time voters being the deciding factor. While acknowledging some unique trends among them, such as slightly more support for Otzma Yehudit and Democrats, he noted that generational differences are not as pronounced as one might assume, with young Israelis maturing quickly and resembling their parents.
Regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's strong endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Rosner admitted the level of support was surprising. He suggested Trump's backing stems from a personal identification with Netanyahu, seeing him as a leader disdained by elites and persecuted by the justice system. Trump likely calculated that Netanyahu was not facing a crushing defeat, making the endorsement politically safe. Rosner also noted that a potential post-election stalemate where no government can be formed might serve Trump's interests, allowing him to fulfill his commitment to support Netanyahu without significant political risk.
Mentioned
