Professor Sees Right-Wing Victory Signs Amidst Election Tension
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Professor Moshe Cohen Eliya predicts a right-wing bloc victory in the upcoming elections, citing former President Trump's support for Prime Minister Netanyahu and a shift of young and disillusioned voters to the right. He analyzes Netanyahu's campaign strategy to consolidate the right-wing vote and suggests voters will abandon smaller parties nearing the electoral threshold. Cohen Eliya believes the public desires a strong government capable of confronting Iran and rejects a minority government reliant on external support.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Professor Moshe Cohen Eliya predicts a right-wing bloc victory in the upcoming elections.
- He cites former President Trump's "unequivocal support" for Prime Minister Netanyahu as a key indicator.
- Cohen Eliya claims voter defection from Likud is smaller than reported, with new young voters and disillusioned individuals shifting right.
- He analyzes Netanyahu's campaign strategy to consolidate the right-wing vote and prevent Ben Gvir from exceeding eight seats.
- The professor attributes Trump's support to a strategic partnership and a desire to avoid backing a less decisive leader.
- Cohen Eliya believes the public seeks decisive victory and cooperation, rejecting minority governments dependent on external support.
As Israel's political system gears up for election day with peak tension between blocs, Professor Moshe Cohen Eliya presents an in-depth analysis suggesting the on-the-ground situation differs significantly from media portrayals. He asserts that former President Trump's "unequivocal support" for Prime Minister Netanyahu indicates growing signs of a right-wing bloc victory. Cohen Eliya claims that in-depth checks reveal pessimistic forecasts for the bloc are inaccurate, with Likud's voter defection being smaller than anticipated. He also points to new young voters leaning right and a number of disillusioned voters shifting rightward following the October 7th events.
Analyzing Netanyahu's final election strategy, Cohen Eliya describes a vigorous campaign effort to secure every possible vote. He notes Netanyahu's typical end-of-campaign tour of studios, aiming to win back Likud supporters considering voting for Ben Gvir, with the goal of keeping Ben Gvir below eight seats. Cohen Eliya believes Levin is unlikely to pass the electoral threshold, and his supporters will likely shift their votes to the right-wing bloc. This phenomenon, he explains, is based on the "psychological effect" where voters abandon parties with low chances of success to avoid wasting their vote, opting instead for more established parties.
Regarding U.S. President Trump's involvement, Cohen Eliya interprets it as recognition of a winning trend in Washington. He attributes Trump's support for Netanyahu to a combination of factors: Netanyahu's perceived necessity for Trump's partnership and Trump's apprehension about backing a less-than-leaderlike figure like Eisenkot. Furthermore, Cohen Eliya suggests Trump, known for disliking losses, likely saw Netanyahu's poll numbers and concluded he was on the path to victory.
Concluding his remarks, Cohen Eliya emphasizes the public's post-election desire for decisive victory and cooperation, citing the proven success between Netanyahu and Trump in confronting Iran. He states the public does not want a minority government dependent on the Shura Council for security actions, predicting that the people will triumph over the "elites of Kaplan."
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