New Law Could Split Likud Party Post-Election, Analysts Say

A proposed law, dubbed the "indicted person law," could significantly alter Israel's political landscape after the upcoming elections, potentially leading to internal divisions within the Likud party. According to assessments within Likud circles, the party currently remains united behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as long as the law is merely a proposal. However, if passed by the Knesset and upheld by the Supreme Court (Bagatz), and if it prevents Netanyahu from being tasked with forming a government, Likud members might reconsider their allegiance. The argument would shift to Netanyahu himself being the obstacle, prompting some within the party to consider presenting an alternative candidate to avoid further elections or opposition status.

This scenario could ignite a succession battle within Likud only after the law becomes a reality. Until then, the party is expected to maintain its public unity around Netanyahu. The political maneuvering of Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, also plays a role. If no candidate secures a clear majority of recommendations, the President has broader discretion in assigning the mandate to form a government. This becomes particularly relevant if Lieberman, Arab parties, or Naftali Bennett do not recommend Benny Gantz, potentially leading to a situation without a clear frontrunner based on recommendations.

Within Likud, there is a concerted effort to find ways to thwart the proposed law. If the bloc opposing Netanyahu secures a narrow majority of 61 or 62 seats, even two dissenting Knesset members could be enough to block its passage. The battle over the law is currently considered "50-50." The future of Itamar Ben-Gvir's party is also uncertain. While Netanyahu might prefer to keep Ben-Gvir in a coalition, he could agree to his exclusion if a centrist party's condition for joining a government is Ben-Gvir's removal. Netanyahu has precedent for such compromises, having formed governments without ultra-Orthodox parties in 2013 and a unity government with Gantz in 2020.

Two main viewpoints exist within Likud regarding their electoral prospects: some are optimistic about reaching 61 seats, while others are more pessimistic. However, recent campaign observations suggest a weakening fear of low right-wing voter turnout, with some signs of renewed engagement. Netanyahu is increasing his campaign activities, visiting multiple cities daily. Ultimately, if Netanyahu achieves 61 seats, most political questions are expected to resolve quickly, leading to a right-wing government that could potentially expand from a position of strength. Without 61 seats, the political system could face a complex struggle involving the presidential mandate, the "indicted person law," potential defections, demands for Ben-Gvir's exclusion, and the possibility of another election cycle.