Likud Polls Suggest Netanyahu Bloc Could Form Government

Internal polls conducted by the Likud party indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc may secure 61 to 63 seats in the upcoming elections, potentially allowing them to form a government. According to Maariv, citing Likud sources, this projection could reach 63 seats if parties led by Yohaz Hendel, Yaron Zelicha, and Ofer Winter withdraw their candidacies before the election. Even if these parties remain in the race, a targeted campaign against them could weaken them, with the right-wing bloc potentially losing fewer votes than anticipated. However, the Likud also considers a scenario where smaller parties fail to cross the electoral threshold, which could cost the right-wing bloc two to three seats. Despite this risk, internal surveys suggest Netanyahu's bloc could still achieve 61 seats under such circumstances. The primary message from Likud leadership is the urgent need to maximize turnout among right-wing supporters and intensify ground operations, which the party estimates could yield an additional three seats. Likud also aims to reduce vote diversion to smaller parties that might not pass the electoral threshold, identifying Ofer Winter and Yohaz Hendel as potential influencers of vote distribution within the right-wing camp.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has outlined key objectives for the pre-election period, including boosting right-wing voter turnout, minimizing vote losses to smaller parties, and continuing the political campaign against Hendel and Zelicha. He has also expressed a desire for security stability across all fronts until the elections, without unexpected events or escalations, despite some claims suggesting he might benefit from a security flare-up. The Likud party is reportedly skeptical about President Yitzhak Herzog's efforts to broker a broad national unity government after the elections, with sources stating no concrete proposals have been received. Likud representatives dismiss the possibility, stating that the current political reality does not lend itself to such a coalition, unlike in the past when President Herzog's father, Chaim Herzog, succeeded in forming one. They claim no official overtures or practical attempts have been made to explore a unity government. Representatives of the opposition "Change bloc" also deny receiving such proposals. The President's office has categorically denied reports of negotiations regarding a unity government, emphasizing that President Herzog is not discussing government composition and will only engage in such matters during post-election consultations.