Haredi Parties Face Mandate Losses Amid Voter Discontent

Haredi parties are not anticipating electoral gains in the upcoming elections, but are instead concerned about significant vote losses. Shas, currently holding 11 mandates, is projected to drop to 7, with 9 considered a successful outcome. United Torah Judaism, expected to gain a mandate due to demographic growth, may instead lose one, falling to 6 mandates, due to protest parties. Historically, the success of the Netanyahu bloc was paramount for Haredi parties, which benefited from resource allocation. This election cycle, however, lacks the prospect of such a victory, and the "change bloc" cannot offer them an exemption from military service, a key demand. Consequently, Haredi parties' strategic goal is tactical: to improve their negotiating positions.

Shas faces a dual challenge with its voter base. Approximately 4-5 mandates come from strictly Haredi voters, while 6-7 come from religious and traditional voters. The Haredi electorate is reportedly angered by Shas remaining in the government amidst arrests and sanctions against draft dodgers, without securing an exemption law. Conversely, some religious and traditional voters are upset by Shas's support for draft evasion. The party also competes for traditional and periphery votes with Likud and Otzma Yehudit, and a potential shift of votes to Otzma Yehudit or voter apathy are concerns. The prohibition on reporting from polling stations on election day further complicates the Haredi parties' highly effective voter mobilization efforts.

United Torah Judaism also fears low turnout and faces anger from both its Haredi base, over the failure to legislate draft exemptions, and from modern Haredi voters who are employed and serve in the military. The Jerusalem Faction, leading the opposition to conscription, could potentially vote for a party focused on opposing the draft. The emergence of the Modern Haredim party, led by Motty Leitner, further fragments the Haredi vote. Dr. Gilad Malach of the Israel Democracy Institute suggests these issues may prevent United Torah Judaism from securing an eighth mandate, though the seventh is considered safe. The eighth mandate would depend on a low overall voter turnout benefiting the party or significantly larger surplus votes than Shas.

An additional complication for United Torah Judaism stems from internal divisions. The Gur Hasidic movement's publication, "Hamodia," is not participating in the election campaign due to anger over the withdrawal of Belz Hasidism and the Shlomi Emunim faction from Agudat Yisrael to form a new party, "Chomat Torat Yisrael." This fragmentation means United Torah Judaism now comprises three parties. While Gur's representative Yitzhak Goldknopf's seat is secure, and Degel HaTorah holds the seventh mandate, a message from the Rebbe of Gur advocating abstention could jeopardize this seat.

The central message from Haredi parties is their refusal to join any government that does not pass an exemption law before its formation. However, current polls indicate no government is likely to pass such a law, making even an extended interim government scenario a "nightmare" for Haredi parties, involving continued arrests and sanctions. Their only hope lies in a potential second round of elections, which might reduce voters' desire to punish them.

Despite demographic growth, Haredi parties' mandate numbers are not increasing at the same pace. While Haredi voter turnout is high, averaging 82.6% in predominantly Haredi cities compared to the national average of 69.6%, the overall growth of the non-Haredi population and reduced immigration from Russia have slowed the Haredi bloc's relative increase in power. Professor Ofer Kenig notes that Haredi voter turnout remains high due to community discipline and the need for funding for their educational institutions. Malach estimates it would take United Torah Judaism 40 years to double its current seven mandates.