Iran Expert Assesses Likelihood of War Before Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from Hamal by baba
An Iran expert assesses that while the general likelihood of a conflict is high due to an unstable status quo and daily Iranian attacks, the probability of it occurring before the Israeli elections is not high. The Iranians are increasing pressure in the Strait of Hormuz to raise oil prices, anticipating that U.S. President Trump will not retaliate before the American midterms. They are increasing missile exercises and are on high alert, but their current aim is not to expand the conflict beyond Hormuz.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Iran expert Dani Sitrinovich believes war before Israeli elections is unlikely, but general conflict risk is high.
- Iran is increasing pressure in the Strait of Hormuz to drive up oil prices.
- Iranians estimate U.S. President Trump will not retaliate before the American midterms.
- Iran is increasing ground-to-ground missile exercises and is on high alert.
- The current Iranian objective is not to expand the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced over the past weekend that Jerusalem and Riyadh recently cooperated in a campaign against the Houthis and that the Abraham Accords are closer than ever to renewal. This new cooperation raises questions about its impact on the campaign against Iran and whether Iranians are preparing for a renewed conflict. Dani Sitrinovich, an Iran researcher and Shiite axis expert at the INSS, analyzed the situation from his perspective.
Sitrinovich stated that while the general likelihood of a conflagration is high due to an unstable status quo and daily Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the probability of such an event occurring before the upcoming Israeli elections is not high. He noted that a return to a diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which is not currently on the table, would be necessary to alter this assessment.
Addressing the question of whether Iran might prefer to escalate actions before the Israeli elections to increase chaos, Sitrinovich explained that while Iran is indeed increasing pressure, the more significant elections are the U.S. midterms. The Iranians estimate that Trump will not retaliate before the U.S. elections, leading them to increase pressure in the Strait of Hormuz to drive up oil prices. They anticipate a potential conflagration soon and are increasing exercises with ground-to-ground missiles, maintaining a high state of readiness. However, Sitrinovich believes their current objective is not to expand the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz, as the soaring oil prices currently serve their interests significantly.
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