Israel on High Alert Amid Fears of Escalation Before Elections

Israel has recently heightened its security alert status due to potential security escalations, despite Israeli assessments suggesting neither Israel nor the United States will attack Iran before elections in both countries. Israeli assessments indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump will avoid military confrontation before their respective elections, with Netanyahu concerned that any military operation against Iran could harm his Likud party's chances of remaining in power. The possibility of an attack on Iran was reportedly discussed between Netanyahu and Trump last week, according to Hebrew media. Nevertheless, Israeli sources maintain that the likelihood of an attack remains relatively high.

Israel fears being drawn into a military confrontation through Iranian actions or Houthi operations in Yemen, potentially leading to limited strikes or involvement through Iran's regional allies. There are also concerns about miscalculation, where one side might preemptively strike believing the other is preparing an attack. In this context, Israel conveyed a message to Washington warning of a severe, possibly unprecedented, response if such a miscalculation occurs, despite past Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iranian targets.

Amid these concerns, the Israeli security establishment is on high alert, preparing for potential surprise attacks from Iran, Hezbollah, or the Houthis. Security officials noted that developments hinge on Trump's decision, emphasizing Israel would not attack Iran without U.S. presidential approval. Sources indicate Trump has not finalized his decision and is still considering options, having previously halted at least two Israeli military operations over the summer based on intelligence about Tehran's nuclear program.

Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir recently assessed the situation, stating that the "possibility of escalation has risen given the numerous warnings in various arenas and the sensitivity of the current stage." Zamir had previously suggested to U.S. officials that escalation with Iran could lead to the postponement of Israeli elections. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon issued a warning to Iran and Hezbollah against exploiting the election period, stating, "Do not try to exploit the election period in Israel; whoever dares to attack us will receive a devastating blow."

An Israeli security official estimated that a U.S. ground operation is essential for significant change, warning that repeating military operations before the U.S. midterm elections could be politically disastrous for Trump. Trump himself had recently threatened a "severe blow" to Iran, though he also stated he would not launch a new attack before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Between predictions of calm until the elections and warnings of miscalculation or surprise attacks, the Israeli security establishment remains vigilant for any development that could lead to a wider regional escalation.