Israel on High Alert Amid Fears of Escalation Before Elections

Israel has raised its alert level in recent days due to the possibility of escalation, with 12 days remaining before the Knesset elections and less than three weeks before the US midterm elections. The prevailing assessment in Israel is that neither an Israeli nor an American attack on Iran will occur before both election cycles conclude. This is because President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are unlikely to take such a risk before their respective elections. Netanyahu's concern is that a military campaign against Iran in the remaining days could harm the Likud party's chances of remaining in power. While the possibility of an attack was discussed in a recent call between Netanyahu and Trump, and despite assessments that an attack is unlikely before the elections, Israel believes the probability remains relatively high. There are fears in Israel that Iran and the Houthi rebels in Yemen might draw Israel into a conflict through low-profile actions or by activating their proxies in the Middle East. Additionally, there is concern about miscalculation, where each side might believe the other is preparing to attack and attempt to preempt it. Israel has conveyed a message to Washington stating that if the Iranians make such a "mistake," they will face a severe, possibly unprecedented, response, even though Israel and the US have already targeted thousands of Iranian targets during the ongoing conflict. Consequently, the Israeli defense establishment is on high alert, preparing for potential surprise attacks from Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Security officials noted that, as in the past, the situation depends on Trump's decision, and without his agreement, Israel cannot attack Iran. Trump appears undecided, continuing to deliberate. Sources familiar with the matter claim the President halted at least two Israeli strikes over the summer, which were based on Israeli intelligence indicating Tehran was rebuilding its nuclear program. Earlier, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, during a situation assessment at the Central Command, warned commanders that "given the numerous alerts across all fronts and the sensitivity of the period, the potential for escalation has increased." Zamir had previously told US administration and military leaders that an escalation with Iran could lead to a postponement of Israeli elections. Israel's Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, also addressed the tense situation, issuing a direct message to Iran and Hezbollah: "Do not try to exploit the election period in Israel. Whoever dares to attack us will suffer a devastating blow." A security source in Israel assessed that without American ground action, no significant new development is expected, and any action before the US elections would be a political disaster for Trump. Just days ago, Trump threatened further severe action against Iran, stating at an election rally in Alaska, "Wait and see what we do to Iran. We are going to hit them hard. Wait and see what we do to Iran, because we've had enough.""