Netanyahu Bloc Hits Low in Optimistic Polls 10 Days Before Election
Translated & summarized from Globes by baba
Ten days before the election, a Globes poll analysis shows the coalition bloc weakening to 54 mandates, even in optimistic surveys. The Likud leads with 22 mandates, followed by Yesh Atid with 21. New parties are projected to pass the electoral threshold, potentially impacting the final mandate distribution. The analysis highlights the critical importance of support for parties near the threshold, referencing the 2022 election results where a small vote difference led to a significant mandate gap.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- The coalition bloc has weakened to 54 mandates, with the opposition (excluding Arab parties) at 49, 10 days before the election.
- The Likud party leads with 22 mandates, followed by Yesh Atid with 21 mandates in the latest polls.
- New parties are projected to pass the electoral threshold, potentially altering the final mandate distribution.
- Even optimistic polls show the coalition bloc at unprecedented lows, with one at 61 and another at 57 mandates.
- The analysis stresses the importance of monitoring parties near the electoral threshold due to their potential impact on results.
- In 2022, a small vote difference between blocs resulted in a significant 8-mandate gap in the Knesset.
With 10 days remaining until the upcoming elections, a comprehensive poll analysis by Globes reveals a weakening position for the coalition bloc, even in surveys considered more favorable to them. The Likud party leads with 22 mandates, followed closely by Yesh Atid with 21. Together, these two parties still hold 12 mandates, and the Democratic Camp has 9.
Other parties show stable numbers: Otzma Yehudit, the Joint List, United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Yisrael Beiteinu each receive 8 mandates. Religious Zionism garners 6 mandates, and Ra'am has 5. The new party formed by Hillel Hanoch and Yitzhak Zarka is projected to pass the electoral threshold in most polls, securing 4 mandates. Another new party, led by Yig al Winter, passes the threshold in half the polls, also receiving 4 mandates in those instances.
The analysis indicates a decline for the coalition bloc, which now stands at 54 mandates, while the opposition, excluding Arab parties, receives 49. The Arab parties collectively secure 13 mandates. This weakening of the coalition was observed in four out of six recent polls from various media outlets.
Mandates have shifted towards the new parties, Hanoch and Zarka's party, and in some cases, towards the opposition. Notably, even the polls that have historically been more optimistic for the coalition, such as those from Channels 14 and i24news, show the coalition bloc at unprecedented lows of 61 and 57 mandates respectively.
The article also draws a parallel to the 2022 elections, where a narrow gap of only 30,000 votes between the blocs at the ballot box resulted in an 8-mandate difference in the Knesset. This was partly due to votes for parties that fell below the electoral threshold not being counted towards mandate distribution. Therefore, the current analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring support for parties close to the threshold, as small shifts can significantly alter the final outcome.
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