Israeli Opposition's Election Wars: Arab Vote Eludes Netanyahu and Rivals

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, launched a sharp attack on Gadi Eisenkot, head of the National Unity party, on October 16, calling him a "Gantz-like" figure. Lieberman accused Eisenkot of still banking on Netanyahu for a post-election rotation government and of courting ultra-Orthodox parties regarding military service and Zionism, seeking them as potential allies. This comes after opposition leaders met on September 26 at Yair Lapid's residence to coordinate strategy and launch a joint campaign against Netanyahu.

The Israeli opposition is currently engaged in a competitive struggle over two main issues: who will lead the opposition bloc as a candidate for prime minister, and the nature of a future coalition. Eisenkot currently leads the opposition and is exploring various post-election possibilities, including a national unity government with Likud, potentially even rotating the premiership with Netanyahu. He also seeks to maintain an option for alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Regarding Arab parties, Eisenkot stated he wants a coalition that includes parties committed to military service and recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.

Naftali Bennett believes he can attract support from Likud and the far-right, advocating for a Zionist government for those serving in the army. Lieberman, however, opposes any reliance on Arab parties, even temporarily. Eisenkot, meanwhile, has called for a commitment against forming any coalition with the ultra-Orthodox or Netanyahu.

Analysts suggest that avoiding repeated inconclusive elections could push towards a national unity government. The US administration, under President Trump, also favors a broad Israeli government excluding figures like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, aligning with American regional priorities. Trump has reportedly expressed distrust of Netanyahu.

Lieberman's campaign against Eisenkot aims to highlight their differences, challenge Eisenkot's credibility, and attract voters who have shifted from Likud to Yisrael Beiteinu. While Eisenkot seeks to draw votes from the Shas party's base, Lieberman's party is known for its anti-ultra-Orthodox stance. Another point of contention within the opposition is the mechanism for selecting the opposition's prime ministerial candidate, with Bennett and Lieberman not yielding their ambitions.

Netanyahu's primary goal is to regain voters who have left Likud, estimated at 20% of the current coalition's strength. He also aims to encourage smaller right-wing parties to withdraw from the race. Netanyahu is reportedly trying to sow division within the opposition bloc, especially after failing to secure surplus vote agreements between parties like Ben-Gvir's and Ofer Vinter's "Amcha Israel" party.

Arab parties, despite internal differences, form a solid bloc unaffected by the opposition's internal conflicts or the balance of power with Netanyahu's bloc. Netanyahu and Smotrich are reportedly campaigning to mobilize around 2,000 religious Zionist supporters as poll watchers for Likud at Arab polling stations. Warnings have been issued about potential provocations near Arab polling stations in large communities, aiming to disrupt voting or invalidate results and suppress the Arab vote. A high turnout, exceeding 70%, could lead to approximately 15 Arab-majority seats, potentially determining the fate of Netanyahu's government.