Israel Hesitates to Sell Air Defense Systems to Saudi Arabia Amid Normalization Talks

Former U.S. President Donald Trump's recent remarks about the potential resumption of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel appear to be disconnected from any actual diplomatic progress. However, Saudi Arabia's current vulnerability to Houthi attacks presents an opportunity for Israel to expand its military aid to the kingdom. Jerusalem hopes this could lead Riyadh to abandon its demand for progress on the two-state solution for the Palestinian issue. Currently, Israel is limited to providing intelligence support and is reluctant to supply air defense systems, awaiting significant concessions from Saudi Arabia, according to Ynet military affairs commentator Ron Ben-Yishai on October 17.

Trump's statement, made during a conversation with journalists on October 16, suggested that normalization was back on the agenda, stating, "Yes, I think so. Maybe even more so than ever before. Saudi Arabia is very happy to get support from Israel and our support." He also mentioned Israel had already assisted the Saudis against the Houthis. While Saudi Arabia does receive intelligence support from Israel, the kingdom is facing escalated Houthi attacks, reportedly at Iran's behest, aiming to pressure Riyadh into seeking a halt to U.S. military action against Tehran.

Israel's motivations for assisting Saudi Arabia include a request from the U.S. and a desire to prevent the U.S. from making concessions to Iran under Saudi pressure. Additionally, Jerusalem seeks to leverage this assistance to revive the normalization process, which stalled after the October 7 Hamas attack. However, providing the advanced air defense systems Saudi Arabia now requires, such as Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow 2 batteries, is a complex issue for Israel, especially with its own fronts open.

Saudi Arabia needs these systems to defend against ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, particularly to protect key airports and energy facilities along the Red Sea coast. Israel is hesitant to provide such systems without receiving something exceptionally valuable in return, a concession that would justify diverting resources from its own defense needs. This contrasts with the UAE, which received Israeli air defense systems after signing the Abraham Accords and establishing diplomatic ties.

While Europe, including Greece with Patriot batteries and France with undisclosed systems, is already providing some air defense support to Saudi Arabia, it remains unclear if this is sufficient. If not, Riyadh may again turn to Israel, but any significant Israeli assistance is likely contingent on Saudi Arabia offering a substantial concession, such as abandoning its demand for a two-state solution, which would be a major shift for the current Israeli government and any future administration.