Netanyahu May Seek Security Escalation to Delay Elections

Speculation is rife in Israel that a security escalation on one or more fronts could lead to the postponement of the upcoming elections, scheduled for October 27. Such a delay would reportedly benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as recent polls suggest he might lose.

Netanyahu views a loss as a personal "catastrophe," believing it could lead to his conviction in ongoing criminal trials and potential imprisonment, a view not shared by many legal analysts who anticipate a plea deal. Military analyst Amos Harel noted that Netanyahu appears to believe "the end justifies all means" and would not hesitate to use deception to avoid jail.

In recent weeks, Netanyahu has spoken of security escalation, claiming evidence suggests Israel's enemies are planning actions before the elections. He reportedly discussed with US President Donald Trump the possibility of Israel attacking Iran, alone or with US support, though Trump did not give a green light. Israeli Army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir acknowledged increased regional tensions due to heightened alerts across all fronts.

According to Harel, Israeli military systems are on high alert, and preparations for escalation are underway. While Trump has recently threatened Iran, he had previously shown restraint. However, intelligence reports indicate Iran may be resuming nuclear and ballistic missile program activities. Harel suggests Netanyahu may be interpreting intelligence to serve his political goals, though some Israeli security sources believe there is no urgent need for immediate action before the elections.

Harel posits that any offensive action would depend on Trump and Zamir. He also notes that Trump has maintained distance from Netanyahu, possibly due to unmet expectations regarding Iran's regime change. Harel recounts past instances where Netanyahu's directives were delayed or altered due to opposition from security leaders and Zamir's actions, citing a failed assassination attempt in Qatar and a dispute over occupying northern Gaza.

If the government orders an attack motivated by election concerns, Zamir might face pressure to publicly state his reservations. An attack on Iran could occur post-election, similar to the 2021 "Guardian of the Walls" operation in Gaza, which followed the March elections when Netanyahu was vying to form a government. Harel also suggests that security chaos, especially if election results are inconclusive, could hinder Gadi Eisenkot's ability to form a government, particularly if it relies on Arab party support.

Furthermore, Harel points to potential escalation in the West Bank due to settler violence against Palestinian farmers. He criticizes the Israeli military, police, and Shin Bet for their perceived inaction in curbing settler attacks, predicting continued unrest and possibly deliberate incitement to influence political outcomes and delay elections.