Iran Threatens Global Oil Prices and US Elections with New Tactics

Iran is altering its strategy for attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to influence upcoming U.S. midterm elections and maintain high oil prices, according to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters. Following retaliatory strikes by the U.S. and Israel starting February 28, Tehran has restricted passage through the vital waterway, which previously handled about 20% of global oil and LNG trade. This move is intended to create leverage against Washington.

Approximately ten days ago, the nature and frequency of attacks on vessels violating Iranian restrictions changed, a decision made at the highest state level. "Our goal is to disrupt the efforts of the U.S. and its allies to lower global oil prices," stated one official, warning that the strait could be completely closed to violating ships soon. The second official indicated Iran plans to expand operations into the Gulf of Oman and more distant areas, with attacks already reported off the coasts of Qatar and the UAE.

"Just when they think they are approaching a point where prices will start to fall, we will take them away from that goal. This is a chess game," the official said, emphasizing that "such vessels will not be safe anywhere."

A U.S. military official confirmed the shift in Iranian tactics to Reuters. After U.S. forces degraded Iran's radar and naval capabilities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began using small boats with unarmed observers to identify targets. In one incident last week, U.S. forces destroyed a traditional vessel used by Iranian observers after ordering the crew to abandon ship; no one was harmed, according to the U.S. official. The official noted that Iran is trying to protect its remaining speedboats and cannot halt the increase in oil exports.

Data from maritime security agencies, including the UN's International Maritime Organization and the Joint Maritime Information Centre, indicate a record number of attacks since the war began, with at least five incidents, including drone use, in the past 48 hours. The conflict, costing approximately $3 billion monthly, has become a key issue in the U.S. midterm elections. Despite President Trump previously stating he would not strike Iran again before the vote, he issued a harsher warning on October 14, stating, "Just wait and see what we do with Iran. We will deal with them properly. Just wait and see what we do with Iran, because we've had enough."