Iran Shifts Ship Targeting Tactics to Pressure Washington Before Elections

Two senior Iranian officials revealed to Reuters that Tehran has adopted new methods for targeting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy aims to maintain high oil prices and increase pressure on the United States ahead of the upcoming November midterm elections. Iran has been seeking to bolster its control over the strait since February 28th attacks attributed to the US and Israel, which disrupted shipping through this vital waterway, previously handling about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. These threats and attacks have led to reduced ship traffic and rising energy costs, despite some oil shipments continuing. The officials explained that the new strategy, initiated about ten days prior, involves altering the nature and frequency of attacks, specifically targeting ships Iran deems in violation of its navigation restrictions. They indicated the decision was made at the highest levels of Iranian leadership and coordinated across various state institutions to thwart US efforts to lower global oil prices.

An American military official confirmed Iran's fundamental shift in operational methods, noting the Revolutionary Guard is now using unarmed observers on small boats to monitor ships, including US Navy vessels, following the degradation of Iran's radar capabilities. This official reported that US forces observed Iranian observers on a sailboat last week relaying target information to the Revolutionary Guard. US forces intercepted the boat, ordered its occupants to leave, and then destroyed it without casualties. The official added that Iran, avoiding risks with its remaining fast boats, has not yet managed to halt increased oil exports through the strait, especially after US strikes on its naval forces. These developments gain significance as the November US midterm elections approach, with the war and its estimated $3 billion monthly cost becoming campaign issues. US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering his next steps toward Iran but has stated he will not launch a new offensive before the elections, while Washington continues its naval blockade and sanctions to exert economic pressure.

Indicating a potential expansion of the confrontation, the Iranian officials stated Tehran intends to extend its operations into the Gulf of Oman and areas beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime security sources and reports to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) suggest attacks may have already spread to waters off Qatar and the UAE. One Iranian official declared that Iran would not allow Trump to lower oil prices before the November elections, asserting that targeted ships would remain unsafe even outside the Strait of Hormuz. In the past 48 hours, at least five incidents involving tankers and commercial vessels, including drone attacks, have occurred, according to maritime security data and UKMTO announcements. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) noted the frequency of these incidents is approaching levels seen earlier in October, signaling renewed escalation. A maritime security source described the increase in attacks as seemingly deliberate.

In a further escalation, the Iranian officials indicated Tehran is moving towards preventing any vessel violating its restrictions from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with one predicting a complete closure of the strait soon. The US-led Combined Maritime Forces reported in a Sunday assessment that the threat level for commercial ships in the strait remains "high," the second-highest risk category. The center highlighted ongoing Revolutionary Guard attacks and harassment attempts, including drone surveillance and radio communication with commercial vessels. These developments heighten concerns over global energy supply security due to increased shipping and insurance risks and continued uncertainty about the return of normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.