Iran Intensifies Ship Attacks in Strait of Hormuz Ahead of US Elections

Iran has altered its tactics for targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to expand its operations beyond this strategic waterway, according to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters. They stated that this new strategy aims to prevent a drop in oil prices before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Since February 28, following U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, Tehran has sought to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade passed before the conflict. The threats and attacks attributed to Iran have significantly disrupted maritime traffic and contributed to rising energy prices.

The two Iranian officials did not provide specifics on the new methods being employed. However, one indicated that offensive tactics changed about ten days ago in both nature and pace. The decision was reportedly made at the highest levels of Iranian leadership and coordinated within the ruling system. "The objective is to thwart the efforts of the United States and its allies to lower global oil prices," one official told Reuters. The second official likened the strategy to a chess game, stating, "Just when they think they are getting closer to a price drop, we will move them away from it."

A U.S. military official confirmed to Reuters that Iran has changed its surveillance methods. After significant damage to its radar capabilities, the Revolutionary Guards are reportedly using small, unarmed boats to identify potential targets, including U.S. warships. Last week, the U.S. military reportedly spotted an Iranian dhow transmitting information to the Revolutionary Guards. U.S. forces ordered the occupants to abandon the vessel before destroying it, with no casualties, according to the official. Tehran also intends to extend its operations into the Gulf of Oman and beyond. Incidents reported recently off the coasts of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates may indicate this geographical expansion, according to maritime security data cited by Reuters. At least five incidents involving tankers or other commercial ships have been reported near the Strait of Hormuz in the past 48 hours, including drone attacks.

Despite Iranian threats, a U.S. military official believes Tehran cannot prevent the resumption of oil exports through the strait. Iran is reportedly avoiding risking its remaining fast boats after its navy was heavily impacted by U.S. operations. The U.S. continues to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports and has intensified sanctions to increase economic pressure on Tehran. The conflict is also a domestic political issue for Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. The U.S. President has stated he will not launch new strikes against Iran before the vote. The confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz threatens to prolong disruptions in energy markets, with attacks, high shipping costs, and insurance premiums complicating a return to normal traffic. The two Iranian officials stated that Tehran is moving towards a complete closure of the strait to vessels violating its restrictions. The Joint Maritime Information Center, led by the U.S. Navy, assesses that the threat to commercial navigation remains severe, citing drone overflights, targeted ship surveillance, and radio interdictions.