Poll Shows Key Party Failing to Pass Threshold Ahead of Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from i24NEWS Arabic by baba
A new i24NEWS poll released two weeks before the 2026 Israeli elections shows Ofer Winter's Amcha party failing to cross the electoral threshold. The Likud party is projected to win 27 seats, followed by Gadi Eisenkot's party with 21. The coalition bloc has seen its projected seat count decrease, while the change bloc and Arab parties have gained seats. The survey was conducted by Direct Polls on October 13, 2026.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Ofer Winter's Amcha party failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold in a new i24NEWS poll.
- The Likud party is projected to win 27 seats, an increase of one seat from the previous week's poll.
- Gadi Eisenkot's party is projected to win 21 seats, also an increase of one seat.
- Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi party gained two seats, reaching 13 seats in the poll.
- The coalition bloc's projected seat count decreased to 57, while the change bloc increased to 50 seats.
With exactly two weeks remaining until the 2026 elections, the Amcha party, led by Ofer Winter, has failed to cross the electoral threshold in a new poll, according to i24NEWS Hebrew. The party, which had recently been projected to win four seats, now stands to receive only 3.1% of the vote, falling short of the 3.25% required to enter the Knesset. Two other parties, the Economic Reserve and the Economic Party, also failed to pass the threshold, receiving 2.2% each.
The Likud party is projected to win 27 seats if elections were held today, one seat more than in the previous week's poll. Gadi Eisenkot's party follows with 21 seats, also an increase of one seat. Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi party gained two seats, reaching 13. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party maintained 9 seats, while Yair Golan's Democrats party dropped one seat to 9.
Among Haredi parties, Yahadut HaTorah is stable with 8 seats, and Shas holds 7 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu also remains at 7 seats, as does the Joint List. The United Arab List gained one seat to reach 6, and the Religious Zionism and Zehut parties are projected to win 6 seats each.
The poll indicates a shift in bloc dynamics. The coalition bloc now has 57 seats, down from 60 in the prior poll. The change bloc has increased to 50 seats from 48, and Arab parties collectively hold 13 seats, up one from the previous week.
The survey was conducted by Direct Polls, managed by Tzuriell Sharon, for i24NEWS on October 13, 2026. It involved 1,210 adult participants and has a statistical margin of error of ±2.8% with 95% confidence.
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