New Security Doctrine Threatens Israel's Economy and Alliances

Israel's current security policy is guided by an unarticulated and unapproved doctrine that prioritizes Jewish identity over democracy, views war as a permanent state, and seeks detachment from the United States, according to a report by Tamir Heyman, head of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). This "new security concept," as analyzed by Ofer Schaleh, a senior researcher at INSS, envisions Israel as a "Super Sparta" with an overstretched military engaged in perpetual conflict and expanding borders. This approach, Schaleh argues, strains the economy, internal cohesion, the concept of a people's army, and the willingness of Israelis to live in the country.

Proponents of this new doctrine claim the old one led to the October 7th failures. However, Schaleh attributes the failures to political decisions, citing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to launch a preemptive strike against Hamas, which he saw as a tool to weaken the Palestinian Authority, and his disregard for warnings. Professor Uri Bar-Joseph suggests this is not a new doctrine but a persistent failure of relying solely on military might and security barriers.

The strain on the military is exacerbated by the ongoing refusal of the ultra-Orthodox community to enlist. Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has repeatedly warned of the army's inability to cope, urging legislation for Haredi conscription and extended service periods. Meanwhile, the coalition is advancing laws that effectively exempt thousands of young Haredim from service, while existing laws requiring their enlistment are not enforced. Reservists are bearing the brunt, serving an average of 100 days annually, incurring significant personal and economic costs.

Economically, Israel's defense spending is projected to exceed 8% of GDP in 2026, far above the 5.5% recommended for growth. Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron has warned that sustained high defense budgets could push the debt-to-GDP ratio to 80%. Schaleh asserts that a "Super Sparta" lacks an economic foundation, as the economy funds military strength, and ignoring this undermines its own base.

Internationally, Israel's alliance with the U.S. is weakening. A significant portion of the Democratic Party in the U.S. House of Representatives has voted to halt military aid, and while the proposal failed, future reductions are expected. This shift is largely attributed to Israel's policies toward the Palestinians. Prime Minister Netanyahu has also expressed a desire to reduce U.S. financial support to zero.

Furthermore, an estimated 270,000 Israelis left the country for at least three months between 2023 and 2025, a nearly 50% increase from the previous decade. This includes a significant loss of doctors and engineers. Researchers like Itay Attar link this emigration trend to the new security concept, as many Israelis are unwilling to live in a state of constant warfare.

The government's policy also appears to treat temporary buffer zones established by the IDF in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria as permanent fixtures. Right-wing groups, supported by some ministers, are pushing to establish settlements in these zones, which would necessitate further military deployment and exacerbate troop shortages. The government's refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th failures, opting instead for a politically appointed committee, further erodes public trust, with polls showing significantly higher confidence in the IDF than in the government.